Ndiyayifumana. Enye imarike yokulandela. Elinye icandelo umntu uthi ngokuqinisekileyokufunekaukuqonda. Kodwa nantsi into-ukugcinwa kwamandlaayilolizwi nje elinye elidadayo kumagumbi enkomfa kunye nedekhi zotyalo-mali. Ngumqobo. Eyona nqaphanqapha imisela ukuba yonke inguqu yamandla acocekileyo iyaphumelela okanye ikhubeke kakubi.
Kwaye ukukhubeka kakubi kuninzi kakhulu etafileni.
Amanani afanele ukukugcina ebusuku
Ukusasazwa kogcino lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela malunga ne 45 yegigawatt-iiyure ngo-2023. Ivakala ichukumisa ude uqonde ukuba i-International Energy Agency ithi sidinga malunga ne-1,500 GWh ngo-2030 ukuze sihlale ukude endleleni ngenet{6} yamabhongo. Ayisosikhewu eso{8}}ngumwonyo. Sithetha ngokunyusa amashumi amathathu{10}}into kwiminyaka esixhenxe ngaxeshanye sihlisa iindleko, amakhonkco obonelelo ngolwakhiwo olungekabikho, kunye nokukholisa abasebenzi begridi ukuba bacinge ngokutsha ngendlela osebenza ngayo umbane.
Uqikelelo lwemarike luyahluka ngokugqithisileyo ngokuxhomekeke ekubeni ubuza bani. I-NEF yaseBloomberg ikhupha inani elinye. UWood Mackenzie uyayiphikisa. Iifemu ezahlukeneyo zokucebisa zivelisa iitshathi ezimibalabala ezithi ngandlel' ithile zonke zikhombe kwihoki{3}}incangathi ejiko lokukhula kodwa ingavumelani nokunyuka. Into wonke umntu avumelana ngayo: le nto ihamba ngokukhawuleza, kwaye ukuba awuyilandeli, ubhabha uyimfama kwisiphithiphithi.
Umba wePolisi yeChaos
Apha kulapho konakala khona. I-Inflation Act e-United States ilahle malunga nama-369 eebhiliyoni zeerandi kwizikhuthazi zamandla acocekileyo, kwaye isixa esibalulekileyo sihamba sisiya kugcino. Iikhredithi zerhafu yotyalo-mali ukuya kuthi ga kwi-30%, iikhredithi zemveliso, ii-addi zebhonasi zomxholo wasekhaya{4}}ngequbuliso sonke isibhengezo somzi-mveliso webhetri siza noshicilelo olumalunga nemisebenzi yaseMelika kunye nokuzimela kwamandla. Ngeli xesha, ummiselo webhetri weManyano yaseYurophu udala iintloko ezibuhlungu zokuthobela ezohlukeneyo, izicwangciso zeminyaka emihlanu{6} zaseTshayina ziqhubeka zilungisa izinto eziguquguqukayo zobonelelo lwehlabathi, kwaye amazwe ngamanye aqhubeka nokudlulisa izigunyaziso zawo zokugcina ezingqubana nomkhombandlela womanyano ngamanye amaxesha.
I-California iyodwa igunyazise i-7,500 MW yogcino olutsha ngo-2026. I-ERCOT e-Texas ibona ugcino olufakwe kwindawo luqhuma ngaphandle kwezigunyaziso konke konke{3}}kuqoqosho ngokuthe ngqo. IOstreliya ngokwesiseko ngumfuniselo omnye omkhulu kwigridi{5}}yeebhetri zesikali ezihlangula iziseko ezingundoqo ezingaphumeleliyo. Ulawulo ngalunye luhamba ngesantya esahlukileyo kunye nezakhiwo ezahlukeneyo zenkuthazo kunye neenkcazo ezahlukeneyo zento ebaluleke njengogcino "oluphezulu".
Ukuba awulandeli olu tshintsho lwepolisi ngeveki-ngamanye amaxesha yonke imihla{1}}uphosa isiqingatha somfanekiso.
Itekhnoloji ayimi ngoku
ILithium{0}}yongamela. Wonke umntu uyayazi le nto. Kodwa isenzo esinomdla senzeka emaphethelweni. Iibhetri zesodium-ziyarhubuluza zisiya kurhwebo{5}}i-CATL ithumele ubunzima bayo bokuqala{6}}iiseli eziveliswe ngo-2023, kwaye iindleko zetrajectories zikhangeleka zithembisa ukuba ukrwaqula kwiiseti zedatha ezichanekileyo. Iibhetri eziqukuqelayo zihlala zihleli ngasemva, ngokuqhubekayo iminyaka emibini ukusuka kwimo yokuphumelela, nangona izinto eziluncedo ezimbalwa zizisebenzisa ngoku ixesha elide{9}}usetyenziso.
Iayini -umoya. Umoya ocinezelweyo kwimiqolomba engaphantsi komhlaba. Umxhuzulane{3}osekwe kwiinkqubo ezisebenzisa iibhloko ezinkulu zekonkrithi. I-Hydrogen njengendawo yokugcina (evula umngxuma womvundla owahlukileyo). Ubume bobuchwephesha buqhekeka ngakumbi kwikota nganye.
Kwaye ke kukho ingxoxo ye LFP ichasene ne NMC ngaphakathi kwe lithium - ion ngokwayo. I-lithium iron phosphate ithengiselwa ngamandla amandla okhuseleko kunye nobomi obude. I-Nickel manganese cobalt ibonelele ngokusebenza ngcono kodwa ngamaphupha amabi e-cobalt ancanyathiselwe. Kangangeminyaka, ii-automakers zaseNtshona zibheja kakhulu kwi-NMC ngelixa abavelisi baseTshayina besiya kwi-LFP. Ngoku? UTesla utshintshele kwi-LFP kwiimoto ezisemgangathweni. Kwalandela uFord. Imvumelwano yeshishini yatshintsha mhlawumbi kwiinyanga ezilishumi elinesibhozo.
Landela itekhnoloji okanye wothuswe bubuchwephesha. Zizikhetho zakho ezo.
Imixokelelwane yoBonelelo: Icandelo elibi
Akukho mntu ufuna ukuthetha ngale nto, kodwa yonke indawo yokugcina yokugcina ixhomekeke kwizinto ezigxininiswe kumazwe ambalwa. ILithium evela eOstreliya naseChile. Cobalt waseDemocratic Republic of Congo, nazo zonke iinkxalabo zobuntu ezibandakanya. Ukusetyenzwa kweGraphite okuqhuba kakhulu eTshayina. Ukucutshungulwa komhlaba okunqabileyo{4}}kwaseTshayina, ngemilinganiselo esondela kwi-90% kwezinye izinto.
Ubunzima bokutshintsha la makhonkco obonelelo luvelisa umsebenzi omkhulu wotyalo-mali. Iiprojekthi ezintsha ze-lithium eArgentina. Imigodi yegraphite eMozambique. Amaziko okulungisa eCanada naseFinland. Iprojekthi nganye inomngcipheko wokwenziwa, ukuvumela ukungaqiniseki, kunye namaxesha adla ngokutyibilika ngokufanelekileyo. Ikhonkco lonikezelo alukho nje umbhalo osemazantsi webali lokugcina. Yonayiibali lokugcina kuye nabani na ocinga ngaphaya kokuthunyelwa kwale kota.
Ngubani Ophumeleleyo?
I-CATL. BYD. Aba benzi babini baseTshayina balawula umthamo webhetri ngaphezulu kunokuba abantu abaninzi becinga{2}}ndaweni ithile malunga ne-55-60% yemveliso yehlabathi ngokuxhomekeke kwindlela obala ngayo. Emva kwabo, abadlali baseKorea njenge-LG Energy Solution kunye ne-Samsung SDI. IPanasonic yaseJapan. Iinzame zaseYurophu ezihlala zibambekile nangona kukho iibhiliyoni zenkxaso.
Kwicala lokudityaniswa kweenkqubo: I-Fluence (i-Siemens kunye ne-AES spinoff) ihambisa izinto eziluncedo-ezinkulu kakhulu. Ishishini likaTesla leMegapack landa kakhulu. UWartsila ujike ngamandla kwiijenereyitha zedizili ukuya kwindawo yokugcina. I-Sungrow, enye inkampani yaseTshayina, igcina isabelo esikhulayo semarike ngeendlela ezingasoloko zisenza iintloko zoshishino lwaseNtshona.
Amandla okhuphiswano ayatshintsha rhoqo. Umdlali ogqwesileyo wonyaka ophelileyo ubhengeza isiphene sokwenza izinto. Isiqalo ebesibonakala sithembisa siphelelwa yinkxaso-mali. Ukufumana okucwangcisiweyo kubunjwa kwakhona amacandelo emarike ngobusuku bonke. Ukuba awujongi imbonakalo yokhuphiswano ngengqalelo yokwenyani, uvuka ngenye intsasa uzibuza ukuba inkampani i-X iphethe njani ngesiquphe i-15% yemarike abayithathanga inxaxheba kwiinyanga ezilishumi elinesibini ezidlulileyo.
Ingxaki yokuDityaniswa kwegridi
Ugcino aluplagi kwiigridi ngokuzenzekelayo. Imigca yoqhagamshelo kulo lonke elase-United States iqulathe ngaphezulu kwe-2,000 yeegigawathi zeeprojekthi ezicetywayo-ugcino, ilanga, umoya, yonke into{4}}iminyaka yokulinda yezifundo zoqhagamshelwano lwegridi. Izibonelelo zothumelo ezakhelwe kwiziko le-fossil elisembindini alizixhasi izibonelelo ezisasaziweyo ngokulula. Iimodeli zoshishino eziluncedo eziyilwe malunga neembuyekezo eziqinisekisiweyo kumzabalazo wenkcitho yenkunzi ukuxabisa iinkonzo zoguquko ngokuchanekileyo.
Eminye imimandla ikuphatha kakuhle oku kuneminye. Uhlaziyo lwemarike yomthamo we-PJM ekugqibeleni luqale ukunakana isiphakamiso sexabiso logcino. I-CAISO iphuhlise iimveliso ezitsha zeenkonzo ezincedisayo ezinokuthi iibhetri zibonelele. Ii-TSO zaseYurophu zamkele izikhokelo ezahlukeneyo ezinempumelelo ezahlukeneyo.
Imigangatho yobugcisa, imithetho yemarike, kunye nezikhokelo zolawulo ziyavela{0}}ngexesha lokwenyani. Ukuphoswa kolu phuhliso kuthetha ukusilela apho akhona amathuba engeniso.
Kwenzeka ntoni ukuba awuyilandeli le nto
Ukunyaniseka? Mhlawumbi akukho nto iyingozi kwixesha elifutshane. Unokuzihoya iimarike zokugcina amandla okwethutyana kwaye ilizwe lihlala lijikeleza. Ipotfoliyo yakho ayidiliki kwangoko. Isicwangciso sakho seshishini siyasinda kwenye ikota.
Kodwa iziphumo ezidityanisiweyo ziyaqokelelana. Umntu okhuphisana naye oye waqonda ubume benkuthazo ye-IRA kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo uvale intsebenziswano yemveliso obungayazi ukuba ikhona. Umtyali-mali olandelele i-sodium{2}}uphuhliso lweioni ubeke inkunzi phambi kokuba izibhengezo zisuse amaxabiso. Isixhobo esilindeleke ukuba iindleko zokugcina ziyehla zakha ubhetyebhetye kwiikontrakthi zokuthengwa kwempahla ezibonakala zifanelekile.
Iimarike zivuza ii-asymmetries zolwazi. Icandelo lokugcina livelisa ii-asymmetries rhoqo. Lonke utshintsho lomgaqo-nkqubo, impumelelo yeteknoloji, ukuphazamiseka kwekhonkco lonikezelo, kunye nokubeka ngokutsha okukhuphisanayo kudala izithuba zolwazi phakathi kwabo banika ingqwalasela kunye nabo bangayihoyiyo.
IiMarike zeNdawo zokuHlala: Ukujika okuKhawuleza
Awukwazi ukutsiba oku ngokupheleleyo. Iisistim zebhetri yasekhaya-amandla akho e-Powerwall, iiyunithi ze-Enphase, iipakethe ze-Sonnen{2}}zimele ezahlukeneyo eziguqukayo. Ukukhula okuqhutywa ngamazinga okuncamathela elanga, iminqweno yamandla elalela emva kokuphela kwegridi, kunye nokunyuka, ixesha-lo{5}}lokusebenzisa i-arbitrage. Utshintsho lwaseCalifornia lweNEM 3.0 lwenze ukuba ugcino lube sinyanzelo kwilanga elitsha lokuhlala kwipensile ngokwemali. Ukutya kweJamani{9}}kwinqanaba lomrhumo{10}}ukuphuma kutyhale iindlela ezifanayo.
Izixhobo zombane ezibonakalayo ezihlanganisa amawaka eebhetri zasekhaya kwigridi-izithuthi eziphendulayo zihlala zisuka kwiinkqubo zokulinga ukuya kukusasazwa kwezorhwebo. Icandelo lendawo yokuhlala liqinisekisa ukulandelwa kwalo okuneenkcukacha, nangona uninzi lokuhamba kwenkunzi kunye nengqalelo yomgaqo-nkqubo isagxile kusetyenziso{2}}kwizicelo zesikali.
Umgca ongezantsi
Ugcino lwamandla luhleli kwindawo ekudibanela kuyo umgaqo-nkqubo wemozulu, ukuphuculwa kweegridi, ukuvuselelwa ngokutsha kwemveliso, kunye nokhuphiswano ngokwelizwe lezopolitiko kwizimbiwa ezibalulekileyo. Iyantsonkotha, iyakhawuleza{1}}iyahamba, kwaye inesiphumo sokwenene. Izigqibo ezenziwe kweli candelo kule minyaka ilishumi izayo ziya kubumba iinkqubo zombane kule minyaka ingamashumi amahlanu izayo.
Ukulandela le marike akuseyonto yokuzikhethela. Bubuchule obusisiseko kuye nabani na osebenza kumandla, kwezothutho, kwiziseko ezingundoqo, emigodini, okanye ngokungafihlisiyo, isicwangciso soqoqosho olukhulu. Uqhagamshelo lusebenza nzulu kakhulu kwaye izibonda ziphakame kakhulu ukuba zingaphatha ugcino njengengxaki yomnye umntu.
Qala ukunikela ingqalelo. Imarike ngokuqinisekileyo.