Iugcino lwebhetriiimfazwe ziyatshisa. Kwaye ngokunyaniseka? Kuya kuba nzima ukugcina umkhondo wokuba ngubani ophumeleleyo kwakhona.
Ibali likaTesla wonke umntu othetha ngalo
Awukwazi ukubhala malunga nokugcinwa kwamandla ngo-2024 ngaphandle kokuqala ngoTesla. Bathande okanye ubathiye, baye bafumana indawo yabo ephezulu kwincoko.
Nantsi into eyabamba ingqalelo yam: UTesla wasebenzisa i-31.4 GWh yokugcina amandla kunyaka ophelileyo. Ayingomsebenzi wokuchwetheza. 31.4 gigawatt-iiyure. Ukunyuka nge-114% ukusuka ku-2023. Ngelixa ishishini labo leemoto liye lanexhala lomntu wonke (ukuhanjiswa kwehle okokuqala ngqa), icandelo le-Megapack lalithe cwaka lisiba ngowona matshini wokwenene wengeniso.
Umzi-mveliso weLathrop eCalifornia umpompa iiMegapacks ngamandla apheleleyo ngoku-40 GWh ngonyaka. I-Shanghai ikwi-intanethi nayo. Kwaye uMusk ukhankanye iMegafactory yesithathu ezayo, nangona engakhange atsho ukuba phi. I-Elon yakudala.
Yintoni enika umdla libali lomda. Ngelixa i-automotive gross margin yeTesla igcina i-sliding (ihle ukuya kwi-18.4% kunyaka odlulileyo), ukugcinwa kwamandla kubethe i-26.2%. Yifunde kwakhona. Ishishini lebhetri lenza imali engcono kuneemoto. Amaxesha asendle.
Kodwa Yima-uSungrow Ukhona
Kulapho izinto ziba nomdla kuzo. Ngelixa wonke umntu wayebukele uTesla, u-Sungrow wabonakala ethekweni kwaye wathi "heyi, silapha nathi."
Amanani kaWood Mackenzie abalisa ibali: UTesla ubambe i-15% yesabelo semarike yehlabathi ngo-2024. Sungrow? 14%. Lo msantsa wawuyipesenti ezi-4 zamanqaku kunyaka nje odlulileyo. Ngoku ngokusisiseko yimali yemali.
Unjingalwazi uCao Renxian waqala i-Sungrow emva ngo-1997-nyaka ofanayo noGoogle, eneneni. Kangangamashumi eminyaka, babe "nje" inkampani ye-inverter. Kwabe kukho into ecofayo. Ingeniso yabo yokugcina amandla iqhume i-127% kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2025, idlula i-PV inverters njengeshishini labo eliphambili okokuqala ngqa.
Ukunyuka kweYurophu kukuxelela yonke into. USungrow usuke kwi-10% ukuya kwi-21% yesabelo semarike eYurophu kunyaka omnye. Basebenzisana nabo bonke abantu abavela kwi-BBOLT e-Benelux ukuya kwi-Schouten Energy e-Netherlands. Ngelixa iinkampani zaseMelika zixhalabile malunga neerhafu, iifemu zaseTshayina ziqhuba umboniso phesheya kweAtlantiki.
I-CATL: Isigebenga esizolileyo esingazolanga kangako
Uyayazi into endikhathazayo? Wonke umntu uthetha ngoTesla kunye no-Sungrow kwindawo yokuhlanganisa i-BESS, kodwa i-CATL ihleli apho njengomenzi weeseli obalaseleyo kwihlabathi kwaye akukho mntu ubonakala eqaphela.
Inkqubo yabo ye-TENER yatshintsha umdlalo xa yayisungulwa ngo-Epreli 2024. Ukuthotywa kweZero iminyaka emihlanu. Yiyeke izike ngaphakathi. Iibhetri ezininzi ziphulukana namandla kwangoko{3}}yiphysics nje leyo. I-CATL ngandlel 'ithile ifumene indlela yokusebenzisa "i-biomimetic SEI" kunye "nokuzimela{5}}ukuhlanganisa itekhnoloji ye-electrolyte" (amagama abo, hayi awam) ukugcina ii-ion ze-lithium zihamba ngaphandle kwemiba yesiqhelo yokuthotywa.
Kwaye amanani ahlala ekhula. I-TENER iqale kwi-6.25 MWh kwisikhongozeli ngasinye. Emva koko kwafika i-TENER Flex yeendawo ezixineneyo zaseYurophu. Ngoku kukho i-TENER Stack e-9 MWh{5}}eyoneleyo yokutshaja iimoto zombane eziyi-150 okanye unike amandla umzi waseJamani iminyaka emithandathu. Ukusuka kwisitya esinye.
NgoNovemba ka-2024, i-CATL yayisele ifakwe kwiiprojekthi ezingaphezu kwe-1,700 kumazwe 40+. Inqanaba labo lokungaphumeleli? Inqanaba lePPB. Leyo yinxalenye yebhiliyoni nganye, kwabo bagcina amanqaku. Rolls{7}}uRoyce usebenzisana nabo. UFluence usebenzisana nabo. UTesla uthenga iiseli kubo.
I-BYD Paradox
I-BYD iyamangalisa. Kwaye ndithetha ukuba ngeyona ndlela incomekayo.
Zinkulu eYurophu-30% yesabelo semarike yendawo yokuhlala kwi-H{1}} Ngaphezu kwesigidi seenkqubo zeBatteryBox ezifakelweyo ezinezehlo zokhuseleko. Uphando lwe-EUPD lwabathiya igama eliphezulu eJamani, eOstriya, eBelgium, eNetherlands, eSpain, eItali, ePoland nase-UK.
Kodwa nantsi into: abakhuphisani ngenene kwindawo enye noTesla kunye neSungrow kwizinto eziluncedo{0}}isikali. Amandla abo ngawokuhlala. I-BatteryBox series ukususela ngo-2015. I-BatteryMax Lite entsha yezicelo zorhwebo. Igridi-isikali siyakhula, ngokuqinisekileyo, kodwa ayisiyiyo apho i-BYD yenze igama layo.
Basayine isivumelwano se-12.5 GWh nangona{1}}kuxelwe ukuba yeyona projekthi inkulu yegridi-eyeyona ndawo yokugcina ibhetri. Ngoko mhlawumbi loo nto iyatshintsha. Nge-BYD, izinto zihlala zitshintsha.
IMarike Akukho Bani Wayibonayo Isiza
Makhe ndikuxelele nge-EVE Energy okomzuzwana.
Zange ndeva ngabo? Bekungekho bantu abaninzi ngaphandle kweTshayina kwiminyaka embalwa eyadlulayo. Ngoku bahlala kwindawo yesibini kwihlabathi jikelele ngokuthunyelwa kweeseli zokugcina amandla. Bagqithe nge-BYD ngo-2024. Hayi ezimotweni, ngokucacileyo-kwiibhetri.
I-CATL ihambisa kakhulu. I-EVE Energy iinqanawa phantse i-15 GWh ngekota. Emva koko une-Hithium, i-REPT, i-BYD, kunye ne-CALB zonke zilwela iindawo eziphezulu eziseleyo. Ukhuphiswano luphambene. Izikhewu zezabelo zemarike ezingaphantsi kwe-1% zahlula indawo yesithathu ukuya kwindawo yesithandathu.
Abavelisi baseKorea? I-Samsung SDI kunye ne-LG Energy Solution yehle ukusuka kwindawo yesithandathu neyesibhozo ngo-2023 ukuya kwindawo yeshumi neyeshumi elinanye ngo-2024. Iinkampani zaseTshayina azikhuphisani nje{2}}ziyalawula.
Umdlalo weChess weNgingqi
IJografi ibaluleke ngaphezu kokuba abantu abaninzi becinga kweli shishini.
UMntla Melika: I-Tesla ingumnini wayo. 39% isabelo semakethi, iimayile ngaphambi kwakhe wonke umntu. Iinkampani zamaTshayina ziphulukene kakhulu apha-ezantsi ukusuka kwi-23% ukuya kwi-16% ngenxa yamaxabiso kunye nomdlalo welizwe. Iimfuno zomxholo wasekhaya we-IRA azibancedi nabadlali bamanye amazwe.
EYurophu: Ibali elahluke ngokupheleleyo. Iinkampani zaseTshayina zonde nge-67% ngonyaka{2}enyakeni{3}. Abadlali abane kwabaphezulu abali-10 baseYurophu ngoku bazinze eTshayina. USungrow wasiphinda kabini isabelo sawo saseYurophu.
UMbindi Mpuma: Umda omtsha. ISaudi Arabia, UAE{1}}bakha iiprojekthi ezinkulu. Abadibanisi baseTshayina abanjengoSungrow, BYD, kunye neHuawei bayalawula. UWood Mackenzie ulindele i-31 GW / 115 GWh yofakelo ngo-2034.
EAsia {{0}I-Pacific: I-CRRC ibambe indawo ephezulu. Iinkampani zaseTshayina zilawula ngaphezulu kwe-90% yemarike. Akukufutshane nakancinane.
Kuthekani NgoFluence?
Umbuzo olungileyo. Fluence -i-Siemens{2}}ishishini lendibaniselwano ye-AES{3}}yayikade ingumdlali ophezulu kwaba-3 kwihlabathi jikelele. Bane-9.4 GW esasazwe kuzo zonke iiprojekthi 225+ kwiimarike ezingama-47. Inkqubo yeGridstack Pro. Iqonga lesoftware yeFluence IQ. Itekhnoloji enzulu.
Kodwa isabelo sabo sentengiso siyehla njengoko iliza laseTshayina lihlala lisiza. Emantla Melika basekwi top-5. Ehlabathini jikelele? Balwela ukuhlala bebalulekile. Inkampani isandula ukwenza inzuzo ngasekupheleni kuka-2023-okokuqala. Ngoko kukho ithemba. Kodwa uxinzelelo lokhuphiswano alupheli.
Umdyarho weTekhnoloji ufumana umnqa
Apha kulapho kufuneka ndijonge khona kancinci.
300+ Iiseli ze-Ah zaba semgangathweni ngo-2024. Phantse isiqingatha sazo zonke izinto eziluncedo{2}} ezithunyelwa kwisikali ngoku ziyazisebenzisa. Kodwa abavelisi sele becwangcisa 500+ iiseli ze-Ah kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2025. Iseli entsha ye-CATL ye-587 Ah ifezekisa i-430 Wh / L yobuninzi bamandla.
Kutheni le nto ibalulekile? Iiseli ezinkulu=uqhagamshelo olumbalwa=iinkqubo ezilula=amaxabiso aphantsi. Uxinaniso lwamandla kwindawo nganye lunyuke ngama-30%. Imikhombandlela yesitishi yehle ngama-20%.
I-LFP (i-lithium iron phosphate) ikhemistri iphumelela kwimfazwe yokugcina izinto ezimileyo. Ikhuselekile, inexabiso eliphantsi, kwaye iCATL/BYD inyuse imveliso yaya kutsho kumanqanaba ekungekho mntu unokuwafanisa. I-NMC isekho apho uxinano lwamandla lubalulekile, kodwa umfutho ucacile.
Iibhetri zesodium -ze-ion? Kwaphola umbhodamo. Amaxabiso e-LFP aye ehla, kwaye ngequbuliso imeko yezoqoqosho yesodium{2}}yaye yaba nzima ukuyenza. Ezinye izicelo niche mhlawumbi. Kodwa yayingeyiyo inguqu eyayixelwe kwangaphambili ngabantu.
Inyaniso Engonwabanga Ngokhuseleko
Igridi-isikali imililo yebhetri inqabile kodwa iyingozi xa isenzeka. Oku kubaluleke ngaphezu kokuba abantu bafuna ukukuvuma.
I-CATL yakha iqonga elipheleleyo lokuqinisekisa ukulinganisa iimeko zokhuseleko. I-AI{1}yabo yokujonga amandla iqhuba 24/7. Iinkqubo ze-TENER ziyahlangabezana nemigangatho ye-IEEE693 yenyikima{5}}ubukhulu benyikima ezisi-9, udidi 5 lwezaqhwithi.
Ufakelo lwezigidi ze-BYD ngeengozi zero luyamangalisa ngokwenene. Kodwa isiganeko esinye esiphakamileyo{1} sinokutshintsha iimbono ngobusuku nje. Ishishini liyayazi le nto.
Ngubani Ophumeleleyo?
Ndiza kunyaniseka{0}}Andiqondi ukuba kukho impendulo elula kwakhona.
Kwizinto eziluncedo-iinkqubo zesikali, uTesla ukhokela kwihlabathi liphela kodwa uSungrow uphefumlela emqaleni wabo. I-CRRC ilawula i-Asia. Imakethi iyaqhekeka, ayidibanisi -abadlali aba-5 abaphezulu baphume kwi-62% yesabelo esidibeneyo ngo-2022 ukuya kwi-47% ngo-2023.
Kwiiseli zokugcina amandla, i-CATL yinkokeli ecacileyo. I-EVE Energy isekwe okwesibini. Wonke omnye umntu ulwela izilahlwa.
Kwindawo yokuhlala, iBYD ingabanikazi baseYurophu. Imicimbi ye-Powerwall kaTesla e-US nase-Australia. I-Enphase kunye ne-Sonnen bane-niches yabo.
Ibali lokwenyani alikho malunga nokuba ngubani #1. Imalunga nokukhula ngokukhawuleza kwemarike yonke-35% ngo-2025 kuphela, ngokutsho kweBloombergNEF. Kukho indawo yabaphumeleleyo abaninzi. Noko okwangoku.
Apho Konke Oku Kuhamba
Iprojekthi ye-BloombergNEF iprojekthi ye-220 GW yofakelo lonyaka ngowama-2035. Umyinge wokukhula wonyaka odibeneyo we-14.7% kwishumi leminyaka ezayo. Imakethi yokugcina ibhetri yaseYurophu iyodwa inokubetha i-87 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2033.
Gigawatt{0}}iiprojekthi zeyure bezikade zingaqhelekanga. Ngoku bathunyelwa eSaudi Arabia, eMzantsi Afrika, eOstreliya, eNetherlands, eChile, eCanada, nase-UK. Isikali sihlala sihlekisa.
Abavelisi baseTshayina baya kuqhubeka besanda phesheya, beseka iifektri eYurophu ukuze baphephe imiqobo yorhwebo. Umgaqo-nkqubo waseMelika uya kuhlala uzama ukwakha amakhonkco obonelelo lwasekhaya. Ulawulo lwebhetri lwe-EU longeza iimfuno zekhabhoni ezinokuphinda zimise ukukhangela.
Kwaye kwenye indawo eCalifornia naseShanghai, iMegafactory yesithathu kaTesla iyacwangciswa. Kuba kolu shishino, ukuma ngxi kuthetha ukuwela ngasemva.
Indawo yokugcina amandla iguquka rhoqo. Ezi nqanaba kunye namanani abonisa idatha ye-2024-2025 kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo iya kutshintsha njengoko imarike iqhubeka nokwanda kwayo ngokukhawuleza. Yenza uphando lwakho phambi kokuba wenze naluphi na utyalo-mali okanye izigqibo zokuthenga.