Nantsi into ekungekho mntu uyibeka kumtyali-mali wabo: uninzi lweeprojekthi zenkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri azifikeleli ekusebenzeni kwezorhwebo. Imigca yoqhagamshelo kwi-United States iphela ibambe ngaphezulu kwe-2,600 GW yomthamo ocetywayo ngoku. Uninzi luzakurhoxa phambi kokuba kugalelwe isiseko esinye. Ayikokuthandabuza oko - yizibalo kuphela.
Kodwa i-9.2 GW yokugcina ibhetri entsha yafika kwi-intanethi kwi-2024. Iiprojekthi zangempela, ezivelisa ingeniso yangempela. Kwaye emva kokubukela le ntengiso ixesha elide ngokwaneleyo, uqala ukuqaphela ukuba zeziphi izigqibo ezahlula abaphumeleleyo kwezo ziphela njengezilumkiso kwiinkomfa zeshishini.
Ingxaki yeNgeniso Akukho mntu ufuna ukuthetha ngayo
Iibhetri ezitshiphu kufuneka zithethe iiprojekthi ezilula. Nantso intelekelelo, kunjalo. Amaxabiso epakethi yebhetri ehle ukuya kutsho kuqikelelo lwe-$115 ngekilowatt nganye-ngeyure kwi 2024 - ukuhla nge-20%. Iindaba ezimnandi ephepheni. Ngaba usebenza? Inkxaso-mali iye yaba nzima, akukho lula.
Ngoba? Ngenxa yokuba icala lengeniso lawa ngokukhawuleza kunokuba iindleko zehla.
Jonga iERCOT. Iavareji yebhetri ifumene i $182 ngekilowatt-ngonyaka ngo-2023. Ngo-2024, elo nani liye lafikelela kwi-$52. Ephezulu-i-asethi esebenzayo isalawuleka i-${7}} ngaphezulu kwe-avareji ephindwe kabini - kodwa eso sikhewu kufuneka sikukhathaze. Iibhetri ezifanayo. Imarike efanayo. Iziphumo ezahlukeneyo zasendle. Umahluko wehla kubasebenzi abasebenzisa iindlela{13}}eziphucukileyo zengeniso ngokuchasene nabo bapake iinkqubo zabo kwimarike enye kwaye banethemba lokungcono.
Kwaye nantsi into eyandothusayo ngedatha yaseYurophu: ISpain yayinamaxabiso ombane aphezulu kakhulu kwilizwekazi ngo-2022, kodwa yaxhasa kuphela imijikelo yorhwebo enenzuzo engama-58. EFinland nakwiiBaltic? Ngaphezulu kwama-300 imijikelo enengeniso - kumaxabiso asezantsi kakhulu. Kuyavela, akukho malunga nokuba ubiza kangakanani umbane. Imalunga nokuba angakanani amaxabiso aguqukayo ngosuku olunye. Leyo yi-metric eneneni eqhuba uqoqosho lweprojekthi yebhetri.
Ukuthatha akulunganga kodwa kubaluleke kakhulu: ukuba iprojekthi yakho yokugcina amandla ebhetri ayifukami ubuncinane imijelo emithathu yengeniso ukusuka kusuku lokuqala - i-arbitrage, umthamo, kunye neenkonzo ezincedisayo - ubheja yonke into kwiimeko ezihlala zilungile iminyaka engama-20. Ithamsanqa ngaloo nto.
Ukukhethwa kweSiza: Ayisekho malunga noMhlaba
Kwiminyaka emihlanu eyadlulayo, abaphuhlisi bakhetha iisayithi ezisekwe kumhlaba ophantsi kunye ne-radiance elungileyo yelanga. Loo ncwadi yokudlala ifile. Njengokufa ngokupheleleyo. Umthamo woqhagamshelo lwegridi sisinyanzelo ngoku, kwaye ubulala iiprojekthi ezininzi kunayo nayiphi na enye into.
Iprojekthi yeLa Mesa eSan Diego County luhambo lwam-kumzekelo apha. Ephepheni, ibigqibelele - kanye ecaleni kwesikhululo esingaphantsi, umthamo we-18 MW, inkxaso eyomeleleyo yomgaqo-nkqubo. I-SDG&E iqhube izifundo kwaye yamisela inkqubo yokusasaza yasekhaya ayinakukwazi ukumelana nanaliti ngaphandle kophuculo olukhulu. Emva kwentlanganiso yeholo yedolophu eyayizele qhu kunye nenkcaso eyandayo, umakhi wasitsala eso sicelo. Kodwa eyona nto yayibulala yayingekokutyhala uluntu. Yayilufundo lonxibelelwano.
Iiprojekthi ezakhiwayo zikholisa ukugcina iindleko zoqhagamshelo lwegridi zingaphantsi kweedola ezingama-50 ngekilowatt nganye. Oko ngokuqhelekileyo kuthetha ukuhlala kwimayile enye ukuya kwezimbini kwizitishi esele zikhona okanye iintambo zothumelo. Yiya ngaphaya koko kwaye iindleko zinyuka ngokukhawuleza - sithetha ngokungekho mgca, uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali{4}}lutshabalalisa ukunyuka. Kwaye ukuba uhleli emgceni woqhakamshelwano kangangeenyanga ezingama-36 (nto leyo ixhaphake kakhulu), iikowuti zexabiso lesixhobo sakho ziyaphelelwa, iminyaka yakho yoqikelelo lwengeniso, kwaye ipro forma yakho ngokuthe chu iba yintsomi.
Abaphuhlisi abakrelekrele ngoku bajonge ngokukodwa iindawo esele zinemithetho yokugcina ibhetri. Ezi ndawo sele zilwa ngeemfuneko zokubuyela umva, iikhowudi zomlilo, kunye neengxoxo zokhuseleko. ECalifornia, abaninziiinkqubo zokugcina amandla ezikhongozelwenizifaneleke njengamaziko osasazo phantsi koxolelo olukhoyo olulawulayo, olukuvumela ukuba utsibe iinyanga zophononongo lokusingqongileyo. Eso siqalo sibaluleke ngaphezu kokuba abantu abaninzi becinga.
ISolar-Ukongeza-uGcino Ayikokuphumelela nje. Ibaleka Ibaleka Ngayo.
Kwi-9.2 GW eyongeziweyo ngo-2024, malunga ne-3.2 GW ivela kwi-solar{3}}kunye-neprojekthi yokugcina. Olo fakelo oluxutyiweyo luhlala lukhusela imigaqo yenkxaso-mali engcono kuneenkqubo ezizimeleyo. Kwaye akukho nzima ukubona ukuba kutheni.
Thatha iprojekthi yeGemini eNevada: i-690 MW yelanga edityaniswe ne-380 MW / 1,416 MWh yokugcina ibhetri, itshixelwe kwi-PPA yeminyaka engama-25. Olo luhlobo lwengeniso ebonakalayo eyenza ababolekisi bakhululeke. Iprojekthi ye-Edwards kunye ne-Sanborn e-California iye yanda ngakumbi - 875 ye-MW yesola nge-3,287 MWh yogcino, esona sixhobo sikhulu ehlabathini ekugqityweni kwayo.
Ingqiqo yezemali ayintsonkothanga. Wabelana ngoqhagamshelwano lwegridi enye endaweni yezimbini. Wabelana ngeziguquli, izixhobo zokutshintsha, iindlela zokungena, ukubiyela - zonke izinto ezibiza imali eninzi ezingalinganiyo ngokulandelelana. Kwaye isizukulwana selanga senza ipateni yokutshaja eqikelelweyo, ke inkqubo yakho yolawulo lwebhetri inokucwangcisa ixesha lokukhutshwa endaweni yokusabela kuyo nayiphi na into ephoswa yigridi kuyo. Yicinge njengokulungiselela ukutya ngokuchasene noku-odola ukuthatha ubusuku ngabunye. Zombini ziyawenza umsebenzi, kodwa enye inexabiso eliphantsi kakhulu kwaye inokuqikelelwa ngakumbi.
Iyure eZine-eMiyo yeyure (kwaye nini ukuba ungayihoyi)
Uninzi lwabaphuhlisi alugqibekanga kwiinkqubo-zeyure ezine kuba yiloo nto abaxhasi betyhala kwaye yintoni evuzwayo ngeenkqubo zokuthengwa kwempahla zaseCalifornia. Kulungile ngokwaneleyo - kwimarike ye-CAISO, iiyure ezine zithatha loo festile ibalulekileyo yangokuhlwa xa ilanga lisihla kodwa wonke umntu usenayo i-AC yakhe ikrunekile.
Kodwa kulapho ifumana umdla khona. Umndilili weprojekthi yebhetri ye-ERCOT ineeyure nje ze-1.7 ubude. Hayi ezine. Hayi kufutshane. Abaqhubi baseTexas bayila iinkqubo ezimfutshane kuba imarike ivuza impendulo ekhawulezayo kwi-spikes yamaxabiso, hayi ukukhutshwa okuzinzileyo. Indlela yokubeka amaxabiso e-ERCOT yokunqongophala ngumdlalo owahluke kakhulu kunekhontrakthi zamandla zaseCalifornia.
Impazamo endiyibonayo ngokuphindaphindiweyo: abaphuhlisi bakha oko abavelisi bebhetri banayo kwishelufu kunokuba imarike ekujoliswe kuyo iya kuhlawulela ngokwenene. Ubude bexesha kufuneka ibe yimveliso yemodeli yakho yengeniso, hayi igalelo elivela kwikhathalogu yomthengisi wezixhobo zakho. Ukuba uzama ukuqondayeyiphi inkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri esebenza ngcono, qalisa ngesakhiwo semarike, kungekhona i-spec sheet.
Izizathu zokwenyani Iiprojekthi ziyafa
Iinkxalabo zokhuseleko lomlilo zifumana zonke iintloko. Abafane babe ngababulali bokwenene.
Oovimba beenkcukacha bokusilela kushishino bapeyinta umfanekiso owahlukileyo. Ibhalansi-ye{2}}yamalungu enkqubo kunye neenkqubo zolawulo - hayi iiseli zebhetri - ezibangela uninzi lweengxaki zokusebenza. Iimpazamo zokudibanisa, iimpazamo zendibano, imiba yomgangatho wokwakha. Ngamanye amazwi, imiba yabantu. Itekhnoloji isebenza kakuhle. Kukugwetyelwa okukhokelela abantu phezulu.
Ukuchaswa koluntu, nangona kunjalo? Ngumbulali othuleyo lowo. Iiprojekthi ezintathu e-Alberta kunye nenye eStaten Island zaye zehliswa ngoJanuwari 2023 kuphela ngenxa yokuchaswa kwendawo. Ipateni isoloko ifana: iimvume zeefayile zomphuhlisi, abamelwane bafumanisa ngophawu oluncinci oluthunyelwe okanye incoko kwivenkile yokutya, iifom ezichasayo eziququzelelweyo kwiiveki. Ngelixa umi kwiholo yedolophu uzama ukucacisa isiqulatho se-thermal ebalekayo kubaninimzi abakhathazekileyo, mhlawumbi sele ulahlekile.
Iiprojekthi eziqala iingxoxo zokwenyani zoluntu kwiinyanga ezili-18 ukuya kwezingama-24 phambi kokuba zifake amaphepha-mvume zijongana nokungaxhathisi kakhulu. Amaphulo ePR angabhalwanga - iincoko zokwenyani malunga nokuba iprojekthi ithetha ukuthini ebumelwaneni. Kukho umahluko wokwenyani, kwaye uluntu luyakwazi ukuxela.
Kwaye kukho umbhoxo wemali{0}}utsalo. Xa iFREYR irhoxisa indawo yayo yokuvelisa ibhetri ye-34 GWh eGeorgia, batyhola ukwehla kwamaxabiso ebhetri kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso enzala. Iimeko eziye zatshintsha emva kokuba benze imali enkulu. Nayiphi na iprojekthi ukusinda kwayo kuxhomekeke kwiimeko ezithile zemarike ezibambe ngokuzinzileyo amashumi amabini eminyaka isisiseko seminyaka engama-20 yokubheja. Ngamanye amaxesha oko kubheja akuhlawuli.
I-LFP iphumelele. IMarike ye-Inshurensi yaSombulula iNgxoxo.
Incoko yekhemistri yebhetri yayidla ngokuba yingxoxo yobugcisa yokwenene. Ayisekho - noko ayisekhoenkulu-ufakelo logcino lwamandla.
Iiprojekthi zeLithium iron phosphate ngoku zikhusela ipropathi kunye ne-inshurensi yokwenzakala kumazinga angama-20 ukuya kuma-30 ekhulwini ngaphantsi kofakelo lwe-NMC. Ayisiyonto ikhethwayo lobuchule - yizibalo zeactuary esekwe kokwenyani{4}}uzinzo lwehlabathi lobushushu kunye nedatha yobomi bomjikelo. Ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-20 yobomi beprojekthi, loo msantsa udibanisa ube ngumahluko onentsingiselo kwiimbuyekezo. Xa abantu umsebenzi wabo ngokoqobo ukubala umngcipheko ukuxelela ukuba baya kuhlawulisa ngaphantsi kwikhemistri enye, luphawu olunamandla.
Ifom yentsimbi ye-Energy{0}}ibhetri zomoya zigqibe i-UL 9540A yovavanyo lomlilo ngaphandle kokulayita naphantsi kweemeko ezinokubangela ukwehla kweziganeko zobushushu kwi-lithium yesiqhelo{2}}. Iikhemistri ezizezinye ziyeza ixesha elide{4}}kwizicelo. Kodwa kwiinkqubo ezine{6}}zeyure ezenza uninzi losasazo lwanamhlanje, ingxoxo ye-LFP iphelile.
Iimarike ezimbini, iincwadi zokudlala ezimbini
I-Texas neCalifornia zibalelwa kwi-61% ye-2024 yofakelo lokugcina amandla. Yonke enye into iyimposiso ejikelezayo xa kuthelekiswa.
ICalifornia idlala umdlalo omde. Nge-12.5 GW yomthamo ofakiweyo, i-CAISO ivuza iinkqubo ezitshintsha amandla elanga ukusuka kwintsalela yasemva kwemini ukuya kwimfuno ephezulu yangokuhlwa. Iiprojekthi zitshixeka kwizivumelwano zeminyaka eli-15 ukuya kwengama-20. I-Lower upside, kodwa ibhanki kakhulu. Uhlobo lwemali ekruqulayo, enokuxelwa kwangaphambili eyenza ababoneleli bamatyala bonwabe.
I-Texas ichasene. Uyilo lwentengiso lwe-ERCOT ludala ukunyuka kwamaxabiso amakhulu ngexesha lemisitho yokunqongophala, kwaye iibhetri eziphendula ngemizuzwana zibamba imida engaphezulu. Ukuguquguquka okuphezulu, intlawulo ephezulu enokwenzeka. Ngexesha lesaqhwithi sasebusika kaFebruwari 2024, abaqhubi bezogcino babone ngokuthe ngqo ukuba iimeko zinokukhawuleza kangakanani ukusuka "kule marike igcwele" ukuya "kuprinta imali."
Zombini iimodeli ziyasebenza. Kodwa awukwazi ukusebenzisa uqikelelo lwaseCalifornia kwiprojekthi yaseTexas okanye ngokuchaseneyo. Abaphuhlisi abafumana oku kungalunganga badla ngokufunda isifundo ngendlela ebiza kakhulu.
Yintoni Elandelayo
I-US ibethe i-26 GW yomthamo wokugcina ibhetri ekupheleni kwe-2024. Iiprojekthi ze-ISO zaseCalifornia imfuno ephantse ibe yi-58 GW yokugcina ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zegridi zexesha elizayo. Umbhobho mkhulu - kodwa kunjalo nezinga lokuyeka.
Iiprojekthi eziya kufikelela ekusebenzeni zabelana ngezinto ezimbalwa ezifanayo. Bavuma ukuba amaxabiso ebhetri aya kuhlala ehla nge-10 ukuya kwi-15 yeepesenti ngonyaka kunye neekontraki zesakhiwo ezisindayo ekunciphiseni ngakumbi. Baphatha uthethathethwano noluntu njengencoko yokwenene{4}eendlela ezimbini, hayi ibhokisi yokukhangela yokuthobela. Bakhetha iziza apho uqhagamshelo lunokwenzeka, hayi nje apho umhlaba unexabiso eliphantsi. Kwaye baqesha amahlakani ohlanganiso agunyazise amakhulu eemegawathi zeenkqubo zokusebenza - kuba idatha ihlala ibonisa ukuba umgangatho wofakelo kulapho uninzi lokusilela luqala khona, hayi iiseli ngokwazo.
Ukuba uvavanya iprojekthi yenkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri ngoku, umbuzo wokwenyani ayingobuphi ubuchwephesha onokuthi ukhethe. Kukuba ngaba indlela yakho yophuhliso ijongana neengozi zokwenziwa ezithi zitshone iiprojekthi: ukulibaziseka koqhakamshelwano, ukunganyangeki koluntu, ukuxhomekeka kwingeniso enye{1}}, kunye nokudityaniswa okuliqili. Fumana ezo zilungile, kwaye inxalenye yetekhnoloji yinxalenye elula.
Ngaba uyafuna ukuqonda iibhloko zokwakha ngaphambi kokuba ungene kuphuhliso lweprojekthi? Yethuisikhokelo esipheleleyo kwiinkqubo zokugcina amandla ebhetriigubungela iziseko. Kwaye ukuba uvavanya ngokuthe ngqoyorhwebo{0}} ulungelelwaniso lwesikali, siye saphula ukuba zeziphi iiseti ezinikezelayo kwizithembiso zabo.