Iiprojekthi eziphumeleleyo zenkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri zabelana ngeempawu ezintathu-ezingaxoxisiyo: indawo yegridi yobuchule, uthethathethwano oluphangaleleyo loluntu phambi kokuba kufakwe iimpepha-mvume, kunye nengeniso eyahluka-hlukeneyo yengeniso engaxhomekekanga kumqondiso wemarike enye. Umahluko phakathi kweprojekthi yenkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri efikelela ekusebenzeni kwezorhwebo kunye nenye erhoxiswayo ihlala ihla kwizigqibo ezenziwe kwiinyanga ezili-18-24 ngaphambi kokuba kuqalwe ukwakhiwa.
Umsantsa wokuSebenza kwezeMali phakathi kwabaphumeleleyo nabaphulukeneyo
Uqoqosho lweprojekthi kugcino lwebhetri lutshintshe kakhulu. Amaxabiso eepakethi zebhetri ehle nge-20% ngo-2024 ukuya kwi-$115 ngekilowatt-ngeyure, itshintsha ngokusisiseko ukuba zeziphi iiprojekthi eziphumayo. Kodwa oku kuhla kwexabiso kudale umbhinqo: iibhetri ezinexabiso eliphantsi azikhange zenze iiprojekthi zibe lula ukuzixhasa ngemali.
Umba ongundoqo kukungaqiniseki kwengeniso. Iiprojekthi ezixhomekeke kuphela kwi-arbitrage yamandla ejongene nemida ecinezelweyo. Imakethi yaseSpain yayinawona maxabiso aphezulu ombane aseYurophu ngo-2022, kodwa ixhase kuphela imijikelo yorhwebo enengeniso engama-58 kuba amaxabiso ahlala ethe tyaba usuku ngalunye. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, iimarike ezifana neRomania, iFinland, kunye namazwe aseBaltic ziye zatshintsha amaxabiso rhoqo kwisithuba seeyure ezingama-24, nto leyo evumela imijikelo yengeniso engaphezu kwama-300 ngonyaka.
Le pateni iveza into ebalulekileyo: iiprojekthi eziphumeleleyo azileqa awona maxabiso aphezulu ombane - zijolise kwelona xabiso liguquguqukayo. Iprojekthi yaseTexas elungiselelwe ukukhutshwa kweyure ye-1.7 ibamba ujingi olukhawulezayo lwe-intraday, ngelixa iprojekthi yaseCalifornia enomthamo weeyure ezi-4 idlala umdlalo wengeniso owahluke ngokupheleleyo.
Izibalo azixoleli. Iiprojekthi kufuneka ziqokelele ubuncinci imithombo emithathu yengeniso ukubuyisela imbuyekezo eyamkelekileyo. Ummiselo wefrikhwensi wedwa awusayinqumli. Incwadi yokudlala yemveli yeebhetri zokupaka kwimarike yokuphendula rhoqo kunye nokubukela ingeniso ingena isenokungasebenzeli ixesha elide. Abaphumeleleyo ngabo banokujikeleza phakathi kwe-arbitrage, iimarike zamandla, kunye neenkonzo zegridi ngosuku olufanayo lokusebenza.
UKhetho lweSiza: Apho Ubuchwephesha budibana neNyaniso yezoPolitiko
Indawo imisela yonke into, kodwa hayi ngendlela abaphuhlisi abaninzi abacinga ngayo ekuqaleni. Ubukho bamandla, ixabiso, kunye nokufikelela okucocekileyo kule mihla yeyona nto ibalulekileyo kwinkqubo yokukhetha indawo. Imfuno yamandla engazange ibonwe ngaphambili icinezele umthamo wegridi yengingqi kwaye yatshintsha indawo yokukhethwa kwesiza ukuya kumandla -indlela yokuqala yendawo.
Izithintelo zothumelo zibulala iiprojekthi ezininzi kunayo nayiphi na enye into. Iprojekthi yaseLa Mesa eCalifornia ibonakale igqibelele ephepheni - kufuphi nesikhululo esincinci, umthamo we-18 MW, kunye nenkxaso eqinile yomgaqo-nkqubo. Iprojekthi iye yarhoxiswa ekugqibeleni ngenxa yeengxaki zothumelo. Emva kwezifundo kunye nokwenza imodeli, i-SDG&E yagqiba ukuba ukudibanisa inkqubo ye-18 MW kwigridi yasekhaya akunakusebenza ngaphandle kohlaziyo. Iziseko zophuhliso azikwazanga kujongana neyona nto ifunwa yiprojekthi.
Le nyaniso yobugcisa ihlangana ngokukhohlakeleyo kunye ne-dynamics yoluntu. Iiprojekthi ezintathu zenkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri e-Alberta, eCanada kunye nenye eStaten Island, eNew York, zaye zachithwa ngoJanuwari 2023 kuphela ngenxa yenkcaso yendawo. Umsonto oqhelekileyo? Abaphuhlisi baphathe uthethathethwano noluntu njengebhokisi yokukhangela kunesiseko.
Iiprojekthi eziphumeleleyo ziphequlula esi script. Bachonga iindawo apho:
Iindleko zokuxhunywa kwegridi zihlala zingaphantsi kwe-$50/kW ngokusondela kwizitishi esele zikhona okanye iintambo zothumelo. Iiprojekthi ezingaphezu kweekhilomitha ezi-2 ukusuka kwiindawo zoqhagamshelwano zijongene noqoqosho olungafane lusebenze.
Oorhulumente basekhaya sele bephuhlise imimiselo yokugcina ibhetri. Kwiiprojekthi ze-BESS ezivunyiweyo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, izinto eziluncedo ziye zacela ukhululo kwiiprojekthi ze-GO 131-D ezifana nezibonelelo "zokusasaza" eziwela ngaphantsi kwe-50 MW kunye ne-50 kV imiqobo esebenzayo, ngaloo ndlela kuthintelwa ukuthotyelwa kwe-CPCN kunye ne-PTC kunye nokuphononongwa kwe-California Environmental Quality Act kunye nokulungelelanisa ngokubonakalayo imvume.
Isiza sinqanda ukubeka-indawo yokugcina indawo enkulu ngaphakathi kweemitha ezingama-500 zeendawo zokuhlala. Oku akuyomfuneko yolawulo kuyo yonke indawo, kodwa iba yimfuneko ebonakalayo ukuze kugqitywe iprojekthi.
IHybrid Co{0}}iNdawo eluncedo
Iiprojekthi zeSolar-kunye{1}}nogcino aziphumeleli nje kuphela - zilawula izibalo zokusasazwa. IProjekthi ye-Gemini Solar Plus Storage e-Nevada iqalise ukusebenza ngokupheleleyo ngoJulayi ka-2024, idibanisa ifama yelanga ye-690-MW kunye nenkqubo yebhetri engama-380-MW/1,416-MWh. Oku kubhanqa kunikezela amandla phantsi kwesivumelwano seminyaka engama-25, ukunika uzinzo lwengeniso yeeprojekthi ezizimeleyo azikwazi ukuhambelana.
Iprojekthi kaEdward kunye neSanborn eCalifornia ibonisa inzuzo yesikali. Iprojekthi eseKern County izibini ezingama-875MWdc zesolar PV kunye ne-3,287MWh yomthamo wenkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri, eyona inkulu ehlabathini. Ezi zixhobo zomhlanganiselwa azongezi nje ugcino kwilanga - zenza i-asethi edibeneyo enokuthumela amandla xa ibaluleke kakhulu.
Ingqiqo yezemali inyanzelekile. Co-ukufumana indawo kunciphisa iindleko zoqhagamshelo, ibhalansi yezabelo{2}}ze{3}}zeziseko zophuhliso lwezityalo, kwaye zenza lula imvume ngokuhlanganisa uphononongo. Okona kubaluleke ngakumbi, icandelo lelanga lenza ipateni yokutshaja eqikelelweyo ukuba iibhetri zinokwandisa ngeenxa zonke. Inkqubo yazi ngokuthe ngqo ukuba imveliso yentsalela iya kufika nini kwaye inokucwangcisa isicwangciso sayo sokukhupha ngokufanelekileyo.
Phantse kwi-9.2 GW eyongeziweyo ngo-2024, malunga ne-6 GW yayiziprojekthi ezizimeleyo, ngelixa i-3.2 GW yayizinkqubo ezixubileyo, ezininzi ezidityaniswe neefama zelanga. Ukwahlula kubonisa ukukhula kobunzulu - iiprojekthi ezizimeleyo ezijolise kwiinkonzo ezithile zegridi, ngelixa iihybrids zidlala{6}}ithuba elide kunye nomdlalo wokunikezelwa kwamandla.
Isithuba seyure-eSine seyure eSweet Spot
Uqoqosho lweprojekthi yebhetri luxhomekeke kubude bexesha - zingaphi iiyure zesistim enokukhupha amandla alinganisiweyo. Imarike iye yazinza ngokomgangatho kuluhlu olufanelekileyo.
Uphando lubonisa iimbuyekezo ezizezona zifuna i-4-iinkqubo zeyure ezi-6, njengoko ezi zinokubamba iincopho zexabiso zangokuhlwa ezipheleleyo ngelixa zigcina ukuguquguquka kokusebenza. Iinkqubo zexesha elifutshane ziphosa amathuba ngexesha elongeziweyo lamaxabiso aphezulu, ngelixa iinkqubo ezingaphaya kweeyure ezi-6 zijongene nembuyekezo ehlayo xa kuthelekiswa neendleko zazo ezinkulu.
Uninzi lweebhetri kwiimarike ze-CAISO zinexesha leeyure ezine, ezibonisa le nyaniso yezoqoqosho. Umgangatho weeyure ezine- ubamba incopho yangokuhlwa ebaluleke kakhulu xa ukuveliswa kwamandla elanga kuhla kodwa imfuno ihlala iphezulu. Iinkqubo ezizama ixesha elide zijongene neendleko ezinkulu ezinyuka ngokukhawuleza kunokuba amathuba engeniso esanda.
Abasebenzi baseTexas bahlala besebenzisa ixesha elifutshane. Iinkqubo ziyilelwe ukuhambelana nenzuzo, njengoko kubonisiwe kwiimarike ezinkulu ezimbini zase-US, iiprojekthi zaseTexas zinexesha eliphakathi kweeyure ezi-1.7 xa kuthelekiswa nokuvala iiyure ezi-4 eCalifornia. Le yantlukwano ayizenzekelanga - ibonakalisa ulwakhiwo lweemarike ezahlukeneyo kunye neepateni zamaxabiso.
Izigqibo zexesha kufuneka zilandele uhlalutyo lwemarike, hayi ubunakho betekhnoloji. Impazamo eyenziwa ngabaphuhlisi abaninzi kukwakha ukuba ngababoneleli bebhetri banikezela ngantoni kunokuba imarike iya kuyihlawula ngokwenene.
Izizathu zokwenyani iiProjekthi ziyasilela
Iinkxalabo zokhuseleko zilawula iintloko-ndaba, kodwa azifane zibe ngababulali abaphambili. Idatha icela umngeni kwingcinga ebanzi yokuba iseli yebhetri ye-lithium ion yeyona nto iphambili yokusilela. I-BOS kunye nolawulo yayizezona zizathu ziphambili zokungaphumeleli, kunye neseli enenani elincinci lokusilela okubangelwa kuko.
Imiba yokufakela kunye nokudibanisa kubangela ukungaphumeleli kokusebenza ngakumbi kunekhemistri yebhetri. Ukudityaniswa, ukudibanisa kunye nokwakhiwa kweyona nto ibangela ukusilela kwe-BESS, zonke zizinto zabantu, ezikhomba apho ukuqondisa iinzame zokunciphisa umngcipheko we-BESS. Oku kutshintsha iprofayile yomngcipheko - ayisiyiyo itekhnoloji enobungozi bendalo, kodwa malunga nomgangatho wophumezo ngexesha lobeko.
Inkcaso yabahlali ibulala iiprojekthi phambi kokuba ziqale. Ipatheni iyaguquguquka: iimvume zefayile zabaphuhlisi, abahlali bafumanisa iprojekthi ngophawu oluncinci okanye incoko yommelwane, kunye neefomu ezilungelelanisiweyo zokuchasa kwiiveki nje. Emva kokufikelela eluntwini, uphando kunye nentlanganiso yeholo yedolophu ebigcwele phama, iprojekthi yaseLa Mesa ifumene i-imeyile eqinisekisa ukuba iprojekthi iye yarhoxiswa.
Ukusebenza kwezemali kuyaba ngumphunga xa ukucinga kweemarike kutshintsha. Iprojekthi ye-FREYR ye-34GWh yokuvelisa ibhetri yeeseli eGeorgia yachithwa, kunye nenkampani ekhankanya izinto, ezibandakanya ukuhla kwamaxabiso ebhetri kunye nokunyuka kwamazinga enzala, njengezizathu zokurhoxiswa. Xa ishishini lakho lonke lixhomekeke kwiimeko ezithile zemarike ezibambe iminyaka engama-20, uyabhencwa.
Ukulibaziseka konxibelelwano kutshabalalisa imbuyekezo. Ukwamkelwa koqhagamshelo lwegridi, ababoneleli betekhnoloji abanamava banokudlala indima ebalulekileyo ukunceda abaphuhlisi baphephe ukulibaziseka kunye nokunciphisa umngcipheko wokumisa iiprojekthi ngokupheleleyo. Iiprojekthi ezihleli emgceni wegridi kangangeenyanga ezi-36+ zibukele iifomathi zazo zobuchule zisiba mbi njengoko iindleko zesixhobo zisiya zinyuka kunye nokucingelwa kwengeniso ngokweminyaka.
IQhinga leeMvume: Iinyanga ezili-18 zokuQalisa iNtloko
Iiprojekthi eziyimpumelelo ziqala uthethwano noluntu kwiinyanga ezili-18-ezingama-24 phambi kokuba kufakwe amaphepha-mvume. Oku akukho malunga nokukhohlisa - kukwakha ukuqonda kokwenyani phambi kokuba izikhundla zibe nzima.
Inqanaba lokufumanisa likunceda ukuba uchaze 'isizathu' sakho seprojekthi, kuba uya kube uchaza umda weprojekthi, iinjongo zeprojekthi, kwaye oko kuya kugqiba ngenene ukuba kutheni ufuna ukwenza le projekthi. Iiprojekthi ezitsiba eli nyathelo zijongene nenkcaso elungelelanisiweyo evela kuluntu oluziva lucatshulwe.
Ixesha elivumelekileyo liyahluka kakhulu ngokwegunya. Imvume inokuthatha iinyanga ezi-6-24 kwaye iyahluka ngokubanzi ngolawulo. Ukhuseleko lomlilo kunye neekhowudi zezowuni eziphelelwe lixesha zizithinteli eziqhelekileyo. ICalifornia neTexas ziphuhlise iinkqubo ezilungelelanisiweyo ngomthamo opheleleyo wezicelo, kodwa amanye amazwe amaninzi asaphatha iprojekthi nganye njengomngeni wolawulo oluveli.
Abaphuhlisi abahlakaniphileyo bachonga amagunya kunye nemimiselo ekhoyo yokugcina ibhetri. Ezi ndawo sele zisebenze ngemibuzo enzima malunga nokusilela, iikhowudi zomlilo, kunye nemigaqo yokhuseleko. Ekubeni i-BESS isentsha kwaye iisayithi ezininzi zikwiindawo ezingabekwanga ngokukodwa ukusetyenziswa kokugcinwa kwebhetri, inkqubo yokuvumela ukusetyenziswa komhlaba, njengemvume yokusetyenziswa kwemiqathango okanye imvume yokusetyenziswa ekhethekileyo inokufunwa kugunyaziwe wendawo onegunya.
Inkqubo yophononongo lokusingqongileyo ibonelela ngeendlela ezimfutshane{0} zeeprojekthi ezicwangciswe kakuhle. Co-ukufumana amaziko e-BESS kunye nelanga okanye umthombo wokuvelisa umoya kungqiniwe ukufezekisa inkqubo yemvume. Xa ugcino ludityaniswa kuphononongo lokusingqongileyo lweprojekthi yamandla ahlaziyekayo, kuthintela ukuxhokonxa iimfuno zophononongo ezahlukeneyo.
UkuGqwesa kokuSebenza: IPosi -yoNyaniso lweKhomishini
Usuku lomsebenzi worhwebo aluphawuli impumelelo yeprojekthi - luphawula isiqalo seminyaka engama-20 yokugaya ingeniso. Ukuthotywa komgangatho wokusebenza, imiba yokudityaniswa kwesoftware, kunye nokufumaneka kokusilela kwahlula abaphumeleleyo koomzabalazo.
Imiba efana neempazamo ze-inverter, iiseli ezibuthathaka okanye iimodyuli, kunye neemodyuli ezingalinganiyo kunye neentambo ziye zaxelwa ngokuqhelekileyo njengezinto kwi-ESS engaboneleli ngamandla apheleleyo egama lesivumelwano okanye ixesha elichaziweyo okanye linganikezeli amandla apheleleyo. Oku ayikokusilela okuyintlekele - kukufa ngewaka lelahleko encinci yengeniso.
Malunga ne-50% yabaphenduli babika iingxaki zenyanga ekusebenzeni kobugcisa. Umsantsa phakathi komthamo we-nameplate kunye neyona ntsebenzo inikezelweyo ikholisa ukuba ngaphezulu kwe-10%, ibetha ngokuthe ngqo ezantsi{3}}imbuyekezo yomgca.
Iisistim zokubek' esweni kufuneka zinike iseli-umgangatho wokubonakala. Ulawulo kunye nokubeka iliso kubalulekile ukuqinisekisa ukhuseleko kunye nokwandisa ixabiso kubanini. Iiprojekthi ezisasaze uhlolo olusisiseko zibuyisela iinkqubo ezintsonkothileyo emva kokufumanisa ukuba azikwazi ukuxilonga imiba yokusebenza okanye ukwandisa izicwangciso zokuhambisa.
{0}}isivumelwano senkonzo yexesha elide ubungozi bolwakhiwo ngokwahlukileyo. Ukuqonda ukuguquguquka kwemali yokugcinwa kwamandla kubalulekile kuphuhliso lweprojekthi oluyimpumelelo. Ukuvavanya "iindleko zokubanjwa kwengeniso" kunokuba luncedo. Le metric inceda abaphuhlisi bavavanye ixabiso elisezantsi lomvuzo kwiinkonzo ezahlukeneyo. Ezona khontrakthi zilungelelanisa inkuthazo yababoneleli be-O&M kunye neemetrikhi zokwenyani zokusebenza kuneziqinisekiso ezilula zokufumaneka.
I-LFP Chemistry Shift
Ukhetho lwekhemistri yebhetri ayibobuchwephesha kuphela - iyakhula umahluko phakathi kokufumana i-inshurensi kunye nokujongana neeprofayile zomngcipheko ezingakhuselekiyo. Ngo-2024, ibhetri ye-lithium ye-iron phosphate ibe lolunye uhlobo olubalulekileyo lokugcinwa kwezinto ezinkulu ngenxa yokufumaneka okuphezulu kwamalungu ayo, ubomi obude kunye nokhuseleko oluphezulu xa kuthelekiswa ne-nickel esekelwe kwi-Li{4}} ion chemistries.
Imarike ye-inshurensi ithethile. Iiprojekthi ezisebenzisa i-LFP chemistry i-coverage ekhuselekileyo kumazinga angama-20-30% aphantsi kuneeprojekthi ze-NMC, ebonisa idatha ye-actuary malunga nozinzo lwe-thermal kunye nobomi bomjikelezo. Lo msantsa udibanisa ubomi beprojekthi, ibe nefuthe elikhulu kwimbuyekezo.
IFom Amandla igqibe uvavanyo lokhuseleko lomlilo kumgangatho weshishini owaziwa ngokuba yi-UL9540A. I-iron-iiseli zomoya azikhange zibambe mlilo, naphantsi kweemeko ezigqithisileyo ezinokubeka emngciphekweni wokwehla kwezehlo zobushushu kwiibhetri zelithium{3}} zesiqhelo. Iikhemistri ezizezinye ziyavela, kodwa i-LFP iye yaba ngumgangatho we-de facto kwiiprojekthi ezibeka phambili iindleko ze-inshorensi kunye nokwamkelwa koluntu.
Ukutshintsha kweMarike yeNgingqi: eTexas vs. California
Imakethi yogcino lwebhetri yase-US iye yaqaqamba malunga neemodeli ezimbini eziphambili, nganye ineepateni zempumelelo ezahlukileyo.
Iiprojekthi zaseCalifornia zibeka phambili ixesha kunye neekontraka zamandla. I-California igcina ukongamela kwayo nge-12.5 GW yomthamo ofakiweyo ngo-2024. Ubume bemalike ye-CAISO buvuza iinkqubo ezinokutshintsha amandla abalulekileyo ukusuka kwilanga{3}}amaxesha anzima emva kwemini ukuya kwimfuno ephezulu yangokuhlwa. Iiprojekthi apha zihlala zikhusela izivumelwano zengeniso zeminyaka eyi-15 ukuya kwengama-20 ezibonelela ngokungena kwekheshi okuzinzileyo, nebhankasekayo.
I-Texas ibamba umngcipheko womthengisi wokunyuka okuphezulu. I-Texas yawuba umboniso ngokuba yeyona -ekhula ngokukhawuleza, eyona marike iguqukayo yogcino lwegridi. Uyilo lwemarike ye-ERCOT yenza i-spikes yexabiso elikhawulezayo ngexesha leziganeko zokunqongophala, iibhetri ezivuzayo ezinokuphendula kwimizuzwana. Iiprojekthi apha zijongene nokuguquguquka okuphezulu kwengeniso kodwa zithatha imida emikhulu ngexesha lemicimbi yoxinzelelo lwegridi.
Kuzo zombini iindawo, xa iimeko zemozulu ezimandundu zibetha, iibhetri zakwazi ukunyusa igridi kunye neendleko eziphantsi zamandla kubathengi. NgoFebruwari 2024 isaqhwithi sasebusika saseTexas sibonise ukuba iimeko zentengiso zinokukhawuleza kangakanani ukusuka malunga nenzuzo ephezulu kubasebenzi bokugcina.
Ugxininiso lwejografi luyaqhubeka luqina. I-Texas kunye neCalifornia zibalelwa kwi-61% ye-2024 yokugcina amandla okufakwayo. Amanye amazwe aphuhlisa iimakethi, kodwa ezi zimbini ziphumelele isikali, ubunzulu bemarike, kunye nokucaciswa komgaqo okwenza iiprojekthi zisebenze ngokuqhubekayo.
UHlolo lweNdyebo yoBonelelo
Ukuthengwa kwezixhobo kunokwenza okanye kwaphule uqoqosho lweprojekthi. Iiyantlukwano zesixokelelwano sonikezelo zibe nempembelelo enkulu ekubhankani kwezi projekthi. Ukuze uphumelele, iiprojekthi kufuneka zibe nesicwangciso esiluqilima sekhonkco lokubonelela, ulwazi olungaguqukiyo kunye nokuzinza kwenkxaso-mali, kunye nokusebenza kobugcisa.
Amaxesha okukhokela kumacandelo amakhulu acinezelekile, kodwa ukwahluka komgangatho kwandisiwe. Iiprojekthi ezifumana imali ngokuthe ngqo kubenzi beTier 1 abafana neCATL, BYD, okanye LG Energy Solution bahlawula amaxabiso eprimiyamu kodwa bafumane iziqinisekiso zokusebenza kunye nenkxaso yobugcisa ethethelela iindleko. Okwesibini-ababoneleli benqanaba banikezela nge-15-20% izaphulelo kodwa bagqithisele umngcipheko wokusebenza ngakumbi kubaphuhlisi.
Ukhuphiswano phakathi kweeseli kunye nabadlali benkqubo belunzima ngo-2024, kunye ne-CATL igcina indawo ephezulu yokunikezelwa kweeseli, kunye ne-EVE yamandla ehamba kwindawo yesibini ngaphezu kwe-BYD. Imbonakalo yomhlaba yababoneleli iyahlanganisana, yenza uthethathethwano kwangethuba kunye nabavelisi kubaluleke ngakumbi ekuqinisekiseni ukwabiwa kwamandla.
Ubuchule bokudibanisa bubaluleke ngaphezu kweendleko zezixhobo. Ixabiso loyilo oludityanisiweyo oluphezulu kunye nendlela yonikezelo lubonakala kumaxesha ogunyaziso kunye{1}nonyaka wokuqala wokufumaneka kweemetrics. Iiprojekthi ezazama ukonga imali ngokuxuba izinto ezivela kubaboneleli abaninzi zihlala zichitha ngaphezulu ekusombululeni imiba yohlanganiso.
Ulwakhiwo Lwemali Olusebenzayo
Imali yeprojekthi yokugcina ibhetri ikhulile, kodwa ifuna izakhiwo ezahlukeneyo kunelanga okanye umoya. Iiprojekthi ze-BESS zizinkunzi{1}}ezinzulu, zifuna inkxaso-mali kunye nolawulo olusebenzayo kubo bonke ubomi babo. Oku kuthetha ukuba abatyali-zimali kufuneka baqinisekise ukuba imali kunye nezicwangciso zokuphuma kunye nabathengi ziyadityaniswa.
Iimodeli zobunini{0}zeqela lesithathu zifumene umdla. Iiprojekthi zenkqubo yogcino lwamandla ebhetri apho abaphuhlisi bagcina ubunini kwaye batyikitye izivumelwano zokuthenga amandla ngaphandle{2}}abathathi basemngciphekweni wolwakhiwo ohlukileyo ekusebenzeni kokusebenza. Esi sakhiwo sibhenela kubathengi beenkampani abafuna ukhuseleko lwamandla ngaphandle kobunikazi be-asethi.
Iisistim{{0}ezizezakho zibonelela ngeyona mali iphezulu-yogcino lwexesha elide, kodwa ifuna inkunzi kunye nesakhono solawulo lweprojekthi. Ukuthenga ngokuthe ngqo kubavelisi be-BESS kunceda ukunciphisa iindleko zokuphawula kubadibanisi okanye abantu besithathu. Imibutho ene-balance sheet umthamo kunye nobuchule bobugcisa iya isanda ngokudlula abaphuhlisi ngokupheleleyo, ibambe umda wodibaniso ngokwawo.
Ubude bekhontrakthi yengeniso buqhuba iindleko zezemali. Iiprojekthi ezinee- 15+ zezivumelwano zokuyeka ukuthabatha unyaka zikhusela amatyala ngama-200{4}}ama-300 asisiseko samanqaku angaphantsi kweeprojekthi zabarhwebi. Umahluko udibanisa - iprojekthi yeminyaka engama-20 kwi-5.5% yenzala xa ithelekiswa ne-7.5% itshintsha i-IRR ngamanqaku epesenti ezininzi.
Ulwakhiwo lweWaranti kunye neziQinisekiso zokuSebenza
Iziqinisekiso zebhetri zivele kwiziqinisekiso ezilula zokugcina umthamo ukuya kwizivumelwano zokusebenza ezintsonkothileyo. Iigophe zewaranti eDynamic ezisekelwe kwindalo eyodwa, imarike kunye nokusetyenziswa kweprojekthi ye-ESS inokwenziwa ngokubeka iliso, iququzelele ukuqwalaselwa komngcipheko ofanelekileyo kubo bonke abachaphazelekayo kwikhonkco lokubonelela ngeprojekthi.
Iziqinisekiso ezisemgangathweni ziqinisekisa i-70% yokugcina umthamo emva kweminyaka eyi-10, kodwa le metric iphosa iinguqu ezibalulekileyo zokusebenza. Iiprojekthi zifuna iziqinisekiso malunga nokusebenza kakuhle kokubuyela nokubuya, amandla akhoyo kumaqondo obushushu ahlukeneyo, kunye neegophe zokuthotywa phantsi kweepatheni ezithile zentlawulo/zokukhutshwa.
Umdlalo wewaranti uye waba nzima. Abavelisi banikezela ngeziqinisekiso ezisisiseko, kodwa abaphuhlisi bathenga ukhuselo olongezelelweyo oluxabisa 3{3}}5% yexabiso lilonke leprojekthi. I-inshurensi yepropati kunye nengozi yofakelo lwe-ESS okwangoku yakhiwe ngokufanayo kuzo zonke iiklasi zeteknoloji, iindlela zofakelo kunye neendawo ezisingqongileyo, kodwa oku kuyatshintsha njengoko abakhuseli be-inshurensi bephuhlisa imifuziselo yengozi yebhetri ethile.
Iziqinisekiso zokusebenza kufuneka zibandakanye iimetriki zokufumaneka, hayi ukugcinwa komthamo kuphela. Ibhetri egcina umthamo we-75% kodwa inikezela kuphela i-60% yekhontrakthi yokuthunyelwa ngenxa yokusilela kwenkqubo yolawulo ayikhange ihlangabezane nesibophelelo sayo, nokuba iyanelisa ngokwewaranti imiqathango.
Ipateni yeMpumelelo esakhulayo: Indawo ye-Inflection eyi-100MW
Uqoqosho lwesikali seprojekthi lutshintshile. Ubungakanani beebhetri ezisebenzayo buyohluka kakhulu, ukusukela kuma-470 kW ukuya kuma-325 MW, kodwa uluhlu lwe-100-150 MW luvele njengolona lungelelwaniso phakathi koqoqosho lwesikali kunye nomngcipheko wokugcwala kweemarike.
Iiprojekthi ezincinci (ezingaphantsi kwama-50 MW) ziyasokola kulwabiwo lweendleko ezisisigxina. Imvume, izifundo zoqhagamshelo, kunye neendleko zomthetho azikhuli ngokulandelelana. Iprojekthi ye-20 MW ingachitha izigidi ezi-2 zeedola kwiindleko ezithambileyo, ngelixa iprojekthi ye-100 MW ichitha izigidi ezi-4 zeedola - -umthwalo wemegawathi nganye wehla kakhulu.
Iiprojekthi ezingaphaya kwe-300 MW zijongana neendleko zokuphucula uqhagamshelo ezinokuphelisa iinzuzo ezinkulu. Igridi ibingalungiselelwanga ukujongana nezi ndawo zokutofa, ivuselela uphuculo lwesiguquli kunye nokuqiniswa kwemigca ekufuneka abaphuhlisi baxhase ngemali.
Indawo emnandi ye-100-150 MW ithimba uqoqosho ngaphandle kokuxhokonxa uphuculo olukhulu lwegridi. Iprojekthi ye-Rongke Power ye-175MW/700MWh ye-vanadium redox yebhetri yokuqukuqela e-China ibonisa obunye ubuchwephesha obufikelela kwisikali sorhwebo kobu buchule.
Data kunye noLawulo Systems Integration
Iiprojekthi zebhetri zivelisa imithamo yedatha engazange ibonwe ngaphambili. Inkqubo enye ye-100 MW/200 MWh inokuvelisa ukuya kutsho kwi-1 bhiliyoni yamanqaku edatha ngosuku, ifakela umoya omncinci okanye ilanga. Iiprojekthi ezingaseka ulwakhiwo lwedatha olomeleleyo ukusuka kusuku lokuqala lujongana neeretrofithi ezibizayo okanye ezisebenza ngokuyimfama.
Isitaki sesoftware sibaluleke kakhulu njengehardware. Iinkqubo zolawulo lwamandla kufuneka zilungelelanise kunye neenkqubo zokulawula ibhetri, ezisebenzisana ne-inverters, eziphendula kwiimpawu zemarike. Kukho umsantsa ekulungelweni kwedijithali: kuphela ngama-55% anelisekile ngokupakishwa kwawo kwesoftware.
Iiprojekthi eziyimpumelelo ziseka i- nomenclature yedatha efanayo kwinqanaba leprojekthi ngaphambi kokugunyaziswa. Xa imodyuli -yenqanaba ledatha esuka kwi-200,000 yeeseli ifuna ukuhlanganiswa kwezigqibo zokuthumela, ukungqubana kwamagama okungahambelaniyo kudala isiphithiphithi sokusebenza.
Iqela lesithathu -lokubeka iliso kunye namaqonga ohlalutyo avele njengeemfuno zeprojekthi kunokuba alungile{1}}ukuba -nezinto. I-EPRI's DER{4}}Isixhobo se-VET sibonelela ngokucace ngendlela esinokusetyenziswa ngayo isixhobo kunye nendlela izibalo ezenziwa ngayo, kunye nokuguquguquka ukwenza imodeli yeempendulo ezahlukeneyo. Iiprojekthi ezisebenzisa isoftwe yokuphucula ephucukileyo ihlala ilungile kunezo zixhomekeke kumvelisi{6}}onikwe ulawulo olusisiseko.
Umbono wePost-2024
Iziseko zentengiso zihlala zomelele nangona umgaqo-nkqubo ungaqinisekanga. Umthamo webhetri oqokelelweyo wesizwe udlule kwi-26 GW ekupheleni kuka-2024, kwaye iimfuno zegridi ziyaqhubeka nokukhula ngokukhawuleza. Iprojekthi ye-ISO yaseCalifornia idinga i-165.1 GW yesizukulwana esitsha kuyo yonke indawo yemakethe ye-CAISO, kuquka phantse i-58 GW yokugcina umbane.
Iiprojekthi zenkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri eziphumeleleyo ngo-2025-2030 ziya kuba zezi:
Yamkela ukuba amaxabiso ebhetri aya kuqhubeka ehla nge-10-15% ngonyaka, ulwakhiwo lwezivumelwano ezihlala zisebenza naxa iindleko zezixhobo zisehla ngakumbi.
Yakha intsebenziswano yokwenene noluntu olusindleke endaweni yokuphatha uthethathethwano lwengingqi njengokuthotyelwa kwemithetho.
Gcina iindlela ezininzi zengeniso ukusuka kusuku lokuqala, unqanda ukuxhomekeka kuyo nayiphi na indlela yentengiso enye.
Khetha iisayithi apho iindleko zoqhagamshelwano lwegridi zihlala ngaphantsi kwe-$75/kW ngokumiswa kobuchule.
Ukusasaza amahlakani aqinisekisiweyo omanyano agunyazise ubuncinci be-500 MW yeeprojekthi zokusebenza.
Sebenzisa i-LFP chemistry ngaphandle kokuba izicelo ezithile zithethelela obunye ubuchwephesha.
Khusela izivumelwano zokuthatha umhlala-phantsi ze 10+ iminyaka phambi kokuvalwa kwemali.
Ukwakhiwa kokugcina ibhetri kubonisa enye yotyalo-mali lweziseko ezingundoqo kule minyaka ilishumi izayo. Iiprojekthi eziqondayo ukuba zininzi malunga nokuphunyezwa kunye nobudlelwane boluntu njengoko imalunga netekhnoloji iya kubamba imbuyekezo. Abo bawuphatha njengomdlalo othe ngqo wamandla ahlaziyekayo banokujoyina uluhlu olukhulayo lwezicelo ezirhoxisiweyo kunye neeprojekthi ezirhoxisiweyo.
Imibuzo ebuzwa qho
Leliphi ixesha eliqhelekileyo lokuhlawula leprojekthi-yesikali sokugcina ibhetri?
Amaxesha okubuyisela ukusuka kwi-7-12 iminyaka ngokuxhomekeke kubume bengeniso. Iiprojekthi zenkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri eneendlela ezahlukeneyo zengeniso (i-arbitrage + umthamo + iinkonzo ezincedisayo) ngokuqhelekileyo zifezekisa i-payback kwiminyaka eyi-8-9, ngelixa abo baxhomekeke kwimithombo enye yengeniso inokwandisa ukuya kwi-12+ iminyaka okanye bangaze bafezekise imbuyekezo elungileyo ukuba iimeko zemarike ziyatshintsha.
Kutheni iiprojekthi zokugcina ibhetri zijongene nenkcaso yoluntu?
Inkcaso isukela ikakhulu kwiinkxalabo zokhuseleko lomlilo ezandiswe-zehlo zeprofayile, ukungabikho kothethathethwano kwangethuba loluntu, kunye nokuhlala kufutshane neendawo zokuhlala. Iiprojekthi zenkqubo yogcino lwamandla ebhetri eziqala iincoko ezingafihliyo kwiinyanga ezili-18 ukuya kwezingama-24 phambi kokuvumela nokugcina incoko yokwenyani ngokusasazwa zijongana nokuchasana okuncinci kunezo ziphatha uthethwano loluntu njengebhokisi yokujonga imvume.
Ixabisa malini uqhagamshelo kwigridi?
Iindleko zoqhagamshelo ziyahluka ngokugqithisileyo ngokusekwe ekusondeleni kwiziseko ezingundoqo ezikhoyo kunye nohlaziyo olufunekayo. Iiprojekthi ezibekwe ngaphakathi kweekhilomitha ezili-1 zezitishi ezifanelekileyo zijongana ne-30-60/kW kwiindleko zoqhagamshelo, ngelixa ezo 3+ iimayile ezikude okanye ezifuna ukuphuculwa kwe-transformer zingabona iindleko ezidlula i-150 yeedola / kW, zihlala zenza iiprojekthi zingasebenzi ngokwezoqoqosho.
Yintoni eyenza iTexas kunye neCalifornia zilawule kakhulu ekugcinweni kwebhetri?
La mazwe adibanisa ulwakhiwo lweemarike ezithandekayo kunye nokucaciswa kolawulo kunye nesikali. I-California ibonelela ngesigxina, -ikhontrakthi zexesha elide ngeenkqubo zokuthenga ezisekiweyo, ngelixa i-Texas ibonelela ngamathuba orhwebo ngamaxabiso aguqukayo. Bobabini baphuhlise iinkqubo zemvume ezilungelelanisiweyo ngomthamo opheleleyo wezicelo, ukunciphisa umngcipheko wophuhliso xa kuthelekiswa namazwe asaseka izikhokelo zolawulo.
Imithombo yedatha
Ulawulo lweeNkcukacha zaMandla e-US - iDatha yeMarike yoGcino lwebhetri
IiKhredithi zeKhabhoni - Uhlalutyo lokuKhula koGcino lweBattery yase-US
I-Canary Media - Uhlalutyo lweShishini lokuGcinwa kwamandla
Amandla-uGcino.Iindaba - iGlobal BESS Deployment Figures
I-EPRI - IiNkqubo zokuFaila kwiDathabase yoKugcina amandla ebhetri
California ISO - Iingxelo zeMarike yoGcino lwebhetri
I-Wood Mackenzie - i-Outlook yeMarike yokuGcinwa kwamandla
BloombergNEF - Uhlalutyo lweXabiso lebhetri
Amandla aCocekileyo aManyano - uHlahlelo lweNtengo yokuThengisa
Umbutho wamandla acocekileyo waseMelika - UMoni woGcino lwaMandla e-US