Ugcino lwamandla olumileyo lucutha iindleko ngeendlela ezininzi: ukuthoba intlawulo yemfuno ephezulu, ukunika ixesha-lokusebenzisa i-arbitrage, ukudibanisa amandla ahlaziyekayo ngexabiso eliphantsi, kunye nokunciphisa utyalo-mali lweziseko ezingundoqo. Amaxabiso enkqubo yogcino lwebhetri ehle nge 40% ngonyaka-enyakeni- ukuya kwi $165/kWh ngo-2024, nto leyo eyenza ezi zicelo zibe noqoqosho ngakumbi.
Indlela Ugcino Lwebhetri Ezizicutha Ngayo Iindleko zoMbane
Okona kuthotywa kweendleko ngokuthe ngqo kugcino lwamandla omileyo kuza ngolawulo lwentlawulo yemfuno. Amaziko orhwebo nemizi-mveliso ahlawula izohlwayo ezikhulu ngenxa yokutsalwa kwamandla aphezulu ngamaxesha okuhlawula{1}}kaninzi kwi-$10 ukuya kwi-$40 ngekilowathi yemfuno encopho ngenyanga.
Indawo yokuvelisa ezoba i-500 kW ngamaxesha aphakamileyo anexabiso lemfuno ye-$40/kW ijongene ne-$20,000 kwimirhumo yemfuno yenyanga kuphela. Ukufakela inkqubo yokugcina echeba i-150 kW ukusuka kuloo ncopho yonga i-$ 6,000 ngenyanga, okanye i-$ 72,000 ngonyaka. Obu buchule bubizwa ngokuba yipeak shaving, busebenza ngokukhupha amandla agciniweyo ngokuchanekileyo xa ukusetyenziswa bekunokwenyuka.
Uqoqosho luphucuka ngakumbi kwiingingqi ngexesha{0}lo{1}}lokusebenzisa izakhiwo zamaxabiso. Izixokelelwano zogcino lwamandla ezimileyo ziyahlawulisa ngexa-iiyure eziphezulu xa umbane uxabisa i-2-i-3 yeesenti nge-kWh, uze uphume ngamaxesha aphakamileyo xa iireyithi zitsibela kwi-15-25 yeesenti nge-kWh nganye. Le arbitrage ibamba umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwamaxesha aphantsi kunye namazinga aphezulu.
Okwenyani-ukuphunyezwa kwehlabathi kubonisa iziphumo ezinokulinganiswa. Idata esuka kwisiseko sogcino lwamandla ibonisa ukwehla kwexabiso lamandla ukuya kuthi ga kwi-30% kwimisebenzi emandla. Kumaziko aneendleko zombane zonyaka ezingaphezulu kwe-1 yezigidi zeerandi, oku kuguqulela kwi-300,000 yeedola ngokonga ngonyaka.
Ukwehla kweeNdleko zeTekhnoloji Guqula i-Value Equation
Uqoqosho olusisiseko logcino lutshintshile kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo ngenxa yokuthotywa kweendleko. Amaxabiso okugcina ibhetri ehla ukusuka kwi-375/kWh ngo-2023 ukuya kwi-165/kWh kwi-2024-i-40% yehla ngonyaka nje omnye, emele ukuhla okukhulu ukususela ekuqaliseni ukulandelela ngo-2017.
Izinto ezininzi ziqhuba le ndlela yeendleko. Ukuvelisa ubungakanani obugqithisileyo e-China, ngakumbi kwiibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate (LFP), zenze ukhuphiswano oluqatha. Iinkqubo zaseTshayina zine-avareji ye-$ 101/kWh ngo-2024, kunye nezinye iiprojekthi ze-turnkey amaxabiso aphantsi njenge-$ 85 / kWh kwiinkqubo zeeyure ze-4. Iindleko eziqhelekileyo zase-US zihlala ziphezulu kwi-$ 236 / kWh ngenxa yeendlela ezahlukeneyo zokubonelela kunye neemfuno zokulawula.
Uqikelelo lubonisa ukwehla okuqhubekayo ngo-2030. I-National Renewable Energy Laboratory ibikezela i-lithium-ixabiso lebhetri ye-ion kwizicelo ezimileyo zingafikelela ngaphantsi kwe-$ 200 / kWh kwiinkqubo ezifakelwe ngo-2030, kunye neendleko zenkqubo ehlonyelweyo enokuthi yehle nge-50-60% ukusuka kumanqanaba ka-2024. Iindleko zeeseli zebhetri kulindeleke ukuba zehle ngokukhawuleza kuneendleko zenkqubo epheleleyo.
Ngaphaya kwebhetri ngokwayo, ibhalansi{0}ye{1}}yezixhobo zesixokelelwano nazo ziyaphucuka. Iisistim zokuguqula amandla, ulawulo lwe-thermal, kunye nolawulo lwe-elektroniki zimele malunga ne-40-60% yeendleko zenkqubo zizonke kodwa zibona ukuhla kwepesenti okucothayo kuneeseli zebhetri. Nangona kunjalo, ukuphuculwa kwemveliso kunye noqoqosho lwesikali luyaqhubeka ukutyhala ezi ndleko zihle.
Ukutshintsha ukusuka kwi-nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) ukuya kwi-lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistry ikhawulezisa ukunciphisa iindleko ngelixa iphucula ukhuseleko. Iibhetri ze-LFP ngoku zilawula ugcino lwamandla olutsha olumileyo, olunikezela ngeendleko zemathiriyeli ezisezantsi kunye nobomi bomjikelo omde nangona amandla aphantsi kancinci.
Igridi-iNqanaba loLondolozo ngaphaya kweemitha zomntu ngamnye
Ugcino lwamandla olumileyo luvelisa ucutho lweendleko olucwangcisiweyo oluthi ludlulele ngaphaya kogcino lwesibonelelo somntu ngamnye ukuze kuxhamle iigridi zombane kunye nabahlawuli berhafu.
Uthumelo kunye nokuhanjiswa kwezibonelelo zimele utyalo-mali olukhulu lwenkunzi{0}izixhobo zobungakanani beenkqubo zazo ukuze zijongane nemfuno ephezulu eyenzeka iiyure ezimbalwa nje ezimbalwa ngonyaka. Ixesha eliseleyo, esi siseko sihlala singasetyenziswanga ngokwaneleyo. Ukubekwa kwebhetri ngobuchule kulibazisa okanye kuphelisa iibhiliyoni kwiindleko zokuphucula.
Endaweni yokwandisa umthamo wothumelo lokujongana nomthwalo okhulayo okhulayo, izixhobo eziluncedo zinokufaka ugcino ezantsi komjelo wee-asethi ezixineneyo. Ibhetri iyaphuma ngexesha elifutshane, isusa imfuneko yokuphucula i-conductor ebiza kakhulu, ulwandiso lwesikhululo esincinci, okanye iziguquli ezintsha. Ufakelo logcino lwe-10-20 MW oluxabisa i-15-30 yezigidi zeerandi lunokurhoxisa iiprojekthi zothumelo ezingaphaya kwe-100 lezigidi zeedola.
Igridi yase-US esebenzayo-iiprojekthi zogcino lwamandla sele zizisa ngaphezulu kwe-580 yezigidi zeedola ngonyaka kuluntu lwengingqi ngengeniso yerhafu kunye neentlawulo zengqeshiso yomhlaba. Njengoko ukusasazwa kukhawuleza-ugcino lwebhetri luphindwe kabini kwisikhundla ngo-2023-le minikelo yezoqoqosho yanda ngokomlinganiselo.
Inkqubo-ebanzi yempumelelo iyaphucuka ngomanyano oluhlaziyekayo olungcono. Umoya kunye nelanga zivelisa umbane kufutshane-zero zero yexabiso eliphantsi xa sele wakhiwe, kodwa imo yazo ngokwembali yayifuna ukugcina iiiturbines zegesi zisebenza njengogcino. Ugcino lwamandla olumileyo lufunxa ukugqithisela kokwenziwa ngokutsha ngexesha eliphantsi{4}}lokufunwa kwaye liwakhuphe ngexesha leencopho, linciphisa imfuno yezityalo ezingabizi kakuhle, ezixabisa amafutha eefosili.
Kwigridi yaseCalifornia, indawo yokugcina ngoku ihlala iphatha iirempu zangokuhlwa xa isizukulwana selanga sihla kakhulu kodwa imfuno ihlala iphezulu. Oku kuthintela ukuqalisa iiinjini zegesi ezinexabiso eliphezulu ezinokusebenza iiyure ezimbalwa kuphela. Ukongiwa okudityanisiweyo ekusetyenzisweni kwepetroli okucuthiweyo kwaye kuthintelwe ukuveliswa okungasebenzi kakuhle kunenzuzo yoncedo lomntu ngamnye.
UHlaziyo oluHlaziywayo luDityaniswa Ludala uLondolozo lweCompound
Ubudlelwane phakathi kogcino lwamandla amileyo kunye namandla ahlaziyekayo enza ukuphindaphinda kunexabiso elongezelelweyo. Ugcino lwenza ukuveliswa okuvuselelekayo kusebenze ngokwezoqoqosho kwizicelo apho bekungekho ngaphambili.
Ilanga kunye nomoya ngoku zivelisa umbane ngexabiso eliphantsi kunamafutha efosili ngokwexabiso elilinganayo{0}}eliphantsi njenge-$23{2}}31 nge-MWh nganye yeeprojekthi eziluncedo{5}}zemilinganiselo. Nangona kunjalo, ukuphumla kwabo kudala imingeni yokudibanisa esonjululwa ngukugcinwa. Ngokufaka umbane ohlaziyekayo ogqithisileyo kunye nexesha{6}}ukuyitshintsha ukuze ihambelane nemfuno, iibhetri zivula ixabiso elipheleleyo lale mithombo yamandla enexabiso eliphantsi.
IHawaii inika umzekelo ocacileyo. Ukungenisa amafutha efosili eziqithini kubiza kakhulu ngaphezu kwamaxabiso elizwe. Iiprojekthi ezimbini zamva nje zoMbane zaseHawaii ezidibanisa izinto ezihlaziyiweyo kunye nogcino zizuze iisenti ezisi-8 nge-kWh{3}}ngesiqingatha seendleko zokuvelisa amafutha efosili kwilizwe. Icandelo lokugcina lenza ukuba ezi projekthi zibonelele ngokukhuphisana kwamandla okuthunyelwa kunye nokuveliswa kwemveli.
Ukuqinisa umoya kunye nemveliso yelanga ngokugcinwa kongeza iindleko ezincinci. Ukuqinisa amandla omoya kubiza i-2-3 yeesenti kwi-kWh nganye, ngelixa ukuqinisa amandla elanga kubaleka malunga ne-10 leesenti nge-kWh ngenxa yeefestile ezimfutshane zemihla ngemihla. Nakwezi zongezo, uhlaziyo{5}}nendibaniselwano yogcino luhlala lucutha ezinye iifosili.
Impembelelo yenkqubo iyadityaniswa njengoko izinto ezihlaziyiweyo ezininzi zisebenzisa. Igigawathi nganye eyongezelelweyo yelanga okanye umoya yonyusa ixabiso lokugcinwa kwamandla okumileyo ngokudala umahluko omkhulu wamaxabiso phakathi kwamaxesha okwenziwa ngokutsha okugqithisileyo nokunqongophala. Iimarike ezinokungena okuphezulu okunokuhlaziywa zibonisa ukugcinwa okusebenzayo kunye nezinto eziphezulu zesakhono kunye nokubamba ixabiso elikhulu le-arbitrage.
Okwesibini-Iibhetri zoBomi zivula ngaPhantsi{1}}Ukhetho lweendleko
Indlela evelayo iyancipha ngakumbi iindleko zokugcina: ukubuyisela kwakhona iibhetri zemoto zombane kwizicelo zegridi emva kokuba zingasayi kuhlangabezana neemfuno zokusebenza kweemoto.
Iibhetri ze-EV zidla ngokuthatha umhlala-phantsi xa umthamo wehla ukuya kwi-70-}80% ye-original{3}}isanele usetyenziso olumileyo kunye nemijikelo yomsebenzi ongafuneki kangako. Ezi bhetri zobomi besibini zibiza i-30-70% ngaphantsi kweebhetri ezintsha kwi-2025, kunye noqikelelo oluvela kwi-$ 44-180 / kWh kuxhomekeke kuvavanyo, ukulungiswa kwendawo, kunye neemeko zemarike.
Unikezelo -lweebhetri zobomi besibini lukhula ngokukhawuleza. Uqikelelo lubonisa ukuba iibhetri ze-EV ezidla umhlala-phantsi zinokugqitha kwi-200 GWh ngonyaka ngo-2030{4}}ngaphezulu kwesidingo esidityanisiweyo sosetyenziso olutsha-logcino lwesikali kwiinkqubo ezisezantsi neziphezulu. Oku kudala urhwebo olukhulu oluxabisa ngaphezulu kwe-30 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwihlabathi jikelele.
Iinkampani eziquka iNissan, iRenault, kunye neBMW sele zisebenza igridi{0}}ziqhagamshelwe kwindawo yokugcina amandla emileyo zisebenzisa iibhetri ze-EV ezisetyenzisiweyo. I-Redwood Materials isandula ukusebenzisa i-63 MWh yesibini-yesigcino sobomi bebhetri yogcino lwamaziko edatha, ebonisa ukusebenza korhwebo kwisikali.
Uhlalutyo loqoqosho lubonisa{0}}iibhetri zobomi besibini zinokufikelela kumaxabiso ajikeleze i-$116/kWh xa zifunyenwe kumthamo we-80% kwaye zisebenza de zifikelele kwi-50% umthamo. Kubasebenzi bokugcina amandla, le ndleko iphantsi yokufumana iphucula uqoqosho lweprojekthi nasemva kokubalwa kovavanyo, ukuhlaziya, kunye neendleko zokudityaniswa.
Iinzuzo zoqoqosho lwesetyhula zanda ngaphaya kweendleko. Ukusebenzisa iibhetri ze-EV kusetyenziso lwesibini -zobomi kunciphisa impembelelo yokusingqongileyo xa kuthelekiswa nokurisayikilisha okukhawulezileyo ngelixa kulibazisa iindleko zokulahlwa kwee-automakers. Oku kuguqula oko kuya kuba ziindleko zolawulo lwenkunkuma zibe lixabiso elishiyekileyo elixhasa ukufikeleleka kwe-EV.
Ixesha elide-Ugcino Lwexesha Luvula Ixabiso Elitsha{1}}lokugcina ii-Aplikheshini
Ngelixa iibhetri ze-lithium -zigqwesa kwi-2-usetyenziso lweyure ezi-6, ubugcisa obuvelayo bexesha elide{4}}logcino lwamandla (LDES) lujolise 10+ kwiiyure zokukhupha, ukuvula amathuba ahlukeneyo okunciphisa iindleko.
Uqoqosho lwangoku lwelithium-yokusebenza kakuhle kwibhayisekile yemihla ngemihla{1}ukutshaja ebusuku, ukukhupha ngexesha leeyure eziphakamileyo. Nangona kunjalo, iteknoloji ye-LDES equka ukuhamba kweebhetri, ugcino lomoya ocinezelweyo, kunye nedilesi yogcino lwe-thermal ukwahluka kwamaxesha onyaka kunye{3}}nemisitho yemozulu yeentsuku ezininzi.
ISebe lezaMandla lase-US liseke i-Long Duration Storage Shot ejolise kwi-90% yokunciphisa iindleko ngo-2030, ijolise kwi-0.05 / kWh yexabiso lezinga. Ngelixa uqikelelo lwangoku lubonisa uninzi lwetekhnoloji engaphaya kolu thagethi, ukuphumeza iipotifoliyo zokuyila ezizezona zinokuzisa umbane ompompelweyo, ukugcinwa komoya ocinezelweyo, kunye neebhetri ezihamba ngaphantsi kwe-0.05/kWh.
Imeko yeendleko iyomelela njengoko ixesha lokugcina linyuka. Inkqubo ye-4 yeyure ye-lithium-ion ixabisa i-$200-250/kWh, kodwa ukwandisa ukuya kwiiyure ezili-10 kwandisa iindleko ukuya kwi-300-350/kWh ngenxa yesakhiwo seendleko zamandla / amandla. Iinkqubo ze-LDES zinokufikelela kuqoqosho olungcono kwixesha elide.
Ezi nkqubo-zexesha elide zenza nzulu uguqulo lwegridi. Endaweni yokugudisa nje iigophe zomthwalo wemihla ngemihla, i-LDES inokuphelisa imfuneko yokugcina umthamo wamafutha efosili njengokhuseleko lwamaxesha onyaka. Uhlalutyo lucebisa ixabiso elikhoyo-i-LDES esebenzayo inokunciphisa iimfuno zomthamo omtsha werhasi yendalo ngaphezulu kwe-200 GW kumnatha-zero zero.
Ulwakhiwo lweMarike kunye neNkuthazo Lukhulisa uLondolozo
Izikhokelo zemigaqo-nkqubo kunye noyilo lweemarike zinefuthe elibonakalayo kwixabiso-lokucutha okunokwenzeka kugcino lwamandla olumileyo.
I-incentives ye-Federal ngokusebenzisa uMthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwe-Inflation inikezela ngeekhredithi zerhafu zokugcinwa kwamandla okuzimeleyo, ukuphucula uqoqosho lweprojekthi. State{1}}inqanaba lemigangatho yepotfoliyo ehlaziyekayo idala imfuno eyongezelelweyo, ngelixa eminye imimandla inikezela ngogunyaziso oluthile lokugcina{2}}iKhalifoniya ijolise kwi-1,325 MW, iMassachusetts ijolise kwi-1,000 MWh, kwaye iNew York ibeke i-1,500 MWh injongo.
Ukuthatha inxaxheba kwimarike yesikhundla songeza imithombo yengeniso ngaphaya kwamandla e-arbitrage. Iinkqubo zokugcina zingathengisa amandla abo okubonelela ngamandla athembekileyo ngexesha leemeko eziphakamileyo, ukufumana iintlawulo zokufumaneka kungakhathaliseki ukuthunyelwa kwangempela. Ezinye iimarike zibhatala i-$50-150/kW-ngonyaka ngokuzibophelela kwisikhundla.
Iinkonzo ezincedisayo zibonelela ngamathuba{0}}exabiso eliphezulu. Ugcino lwamandla olumileyo luyagqwesa kulawulo lwamaxesha amaninzi -ukulungelelanisa ngokukhawuleza imveliso ukugcina uzinzo kwigridi{3}}ukufumana iipremiyamu zamaxesha okuphendula ngokukhawuleza. Ezi nkonzo zinokuvelisa i-$ 100-300 / kW ngonyaka ngokuxhomekeke kwimithetho yemarike.
Iinkqubo zeplanti yamandla ebonakalayo zidibanisa ii-asethi ezisasaziweyo zokugcina, ezivumela izinto eziluncedo ukuba zithumele iibhetri zendawo yokuhlala nezorhwebo ngexesha lencopho yenkqubo. Abanini abathatha inxaxheba bafumana iintlawulo zokusebenza ngelixa behlisa inkqubo{1}}amaxabiso abanzi. Le modeli idibanisa izibonelelo kubathengi abaninzi kunokuba ibagxininise kubanini benkqubo enkulu.
Ixesha-lo{1}}lokusebenzisa izinga lezakhiwo lidala amathuba e-arbitrage kubathengi beendawo zokuhlala kunye nezorhwebo. Ngokususa usetyenziso ukusuka kumaxesha amaxabiso aphezulu ukuya kwiiyure ezingabizi kakhulu zobusuku, iinkqubo zokugcina zithatha i-10-15 yeepesenti ngokwahluka kwe-kWh. Ugcino lonyaka lwe-$500-2,000 luxhaphakile kufakelo lweendawo zokuhlala, neenkqubo zorhwebo zonga kakhulu.
IiNdlela zeXabiso ezizayo zikhomba ezantsi
Iindlela ezininzi ezibonisa ukuthotywa kweendleko eziqhubekayo zokugcinwa kwamandla angatshintshiyo ngo-2030 nangaphaya.
Isikali sokuvelisa siqhuba iinzuzo zokufunda kwigophe. Ukuphindwa kabini kwemveliso eyongezelekayo ngokwembali kunciphisa i-lithium{1}}ixabiso lebhetri yeion nge-18-28%. Ngokusasazwa kwebhetri yehlabathi kufikelele kwi-1 TWh ngo-2024-ngaphezulu kwiveki enye kunonyaka wonke kwishumi leminyaka ngaphambili-ijiko lokufunda liyaqhubeka nokukhula.
Izinto ezintsha zeKhemistri ziphucula iindleko kunye nokusebenza ngaxeshanye. Iibhetri zesodium -zinokufikelela malunga ne-$0.31/kWh iindleko zomgangatho ophantsi kunokhetho lwangoku. Lead{{4}uphuculo lweasidi lubonisa ukubanako okufanayo. Ezi zikhetho zinciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwikhonkco lokubonelela nge-lithium ngelixa ukwandisa amathuba okufaka isicelo.
Ukuthengiswa kwekhonkco lonikezelo e-US naseYurophu kuya kuba nefuthe kumaxabiso engingqi. Ngelixa iindleko ezinokuthi zinyuse ixesha elifutshane- xa kuthelekiswa nezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle eTshayina, ingeniso yokwenziwa kwemveliso yasekhaya evela kwi-IRA yenkuthazo kwaye isusa ukuvezwa kwerhafu. Iifektri ezininzi zegigawatt-zebhetri ziphantsi kolwakhiwo kuwo wonke uMntla Melika.
Iindleko ezithambileyo-zemvume, uqhagamshelo, ubunjineli, ufakelo{1}bonisa izahlulo ezonyukayo zeendleko zenkqubo iyonke njengoko amaxabiso ehardware esihla. Ukumiswa komgangatho, iinkqubo zokuvunywa ezilungelelanisiweyo, kunye namava ofakelo aqokelelweyo kufuneka anciphise la macandelo. Olunye uqikelelo lucebisa ukuba iindleko ezithambileyo zinokuhla nge-25-40% ngo-2030.
Ukujikeleza-ukuphucuka kobuchule bohambo kugcina amandla asebenzisekayo ngakumbi kumjikelo ngamnye. Iinkqubo zangoku ze-lithium - zifezekisa i-85 - i-90% esebenzayo, kodwa uyilo lwesizukulwana esilandelayo lujolise kwi-92-95%. Olu phuculo lubonakala luncinci lunempembelelo enkulu kuqoqosho lomjikelo wobomi, ukunciphisa iindleko zokubiza kunye nokwandisa umthamo oluncedo.
Imibuzo ebuzwa qho
Yeyiphi isayizi yenkqubo yogcino efunekayo ngexabiso-lokucheba olusebenzayo?
Ubungakanani benkqubo buxhomekeke kwiprofayile yakho yomthwalo kunye nolwakhiwo lwentlawulo yemfuno ephezulu. Uninzi lwezicelo zorhwebo zizuza kwiinkqubo ze-100-500 kWh ezikwazi ukukhupha iiyure ezi-1 ukuya kwezi-3 kumanqanaba aphezulu okunciphisa umthwalo. Uhlalutyo oluneenkcukacha lwedatha yemitha yesithuba ichonga amandla afanelekileyo-ngokuqhelekileyo ngokwaneleyo ukunciphisa imfuno ephezulu nge-20-40% ngelixa kugcinwa iifestile zentlawulo yezoqoqosho. Amaziko ahlawula iindleko zemfuno ngaphezulu kwe-$15/kW ngenyanga ngokubanzi abona imbuyekezo phakathi kweminyaka emi-5-7.
Ngaba indawo yokugcina amandla inganciphisa iindleko ngaphandle kweepaneli zelanga?
Ewe, nangona uqoqosho lusahluka ngokwendawo. Amakhaya anexesha -lo{2}}amaxabiso okusebenzisa angenza inzuzo kwi-arbitrage yemihla ngemihla nangaphandle kokuveliswa kwelanga ngokutshaja iibhetri ngobusuku obunye nge-$0.08-0.12/kWh kunye nokukhupha ngexesha leencopho zangokuhlwa ze-$0.25-0.40/kWh. Ukugcinwa kwe-40-100 yeedola ngenyanga kuyafezekiswa kwizakhiwo zexabiso elifanelekileyo. Ukongeza i-solar kuphucula kakhulu imbuyekezo ngokususa iindleko zokutshaja ngokupheleleyo ngelixa uthatha amaxabiso okuthenga athintelweyo aphezulu.
Iindleko zokugcina zithelekiswa njani kwiitekhnoloji ezahlukeneyo?
I-Lithium-iyoni ilawula ukusasazwa kwangoku kwi-avareji ye-$165/kWh kwihlabathi jikelele, ngeendleko eziyohluka ukusuka kwi-$85/kWh e-China ukuya kwi-$236/kWh kwi-US Flow iibhetri zibiza i-$200{10}}400/kWh kodwa zihlala ixesha elide ngebhayisekile engenamkhawulo. Umoya oxiniweyo kunye ne-hydro pumped zibonelela ngeendleko eziphantsi kwisikali ($100-150/kWh) kodwa zifuna iimeko ezithile zejografi. Iibhetri ze-EV zobomi besibini zibonelela ngeyona ndlela yoqoqosho kwi-44-180 / kWh kuxhomekeke kumthamo oseleyo.
Zeziphi iindleko zogcino ekufuneka zilindelwe kwindawo yogcino olumileyo?
Ukusebenza okuzinzileyo kunye nokugcinwa kudla ngokuqhuba i-$5-15/kW ngonyaka kusetyenziso{3}}iinkqubo zesikali, ezineenkqubo zokuhlala ezifuna ukugcinwa okuncinci ngaphaya kohlaziyo lwesoftwe ngamaxesha kunye nokuhlolwa okubonakalayo. Ukutshintshwa kwebhetri kubonisa elona xabiso likhulu kumjikelo wobomi{4}}iibhetri ze-lithium-ion zithomalalisa umyinge we-2-3% ngonyaka, zifuna ukutshintshwa emva kweminyaka eyi-10-15 ngokuxhomekeke kubungakanani bosetyenziso kunye neemeko zendawo. Ukutshintshwa kwe-inverter kwenzeka rhoqo kwiminyaka eyi-10-12 malunga ne-15% yeendleko zenkqubo yokuqala.
Ukuya phambili
Ukugcinwa kwamandla okumileyo kuguqula uqoqosho lombane ngokulawula ukusetyenziswa ngokuthe ngqo, izibonelelo zegridi yenkqubo, kunye nokuhlanganiswa kwamandla ahlaziyekayo. Ngeendleko ezihla ngokukhawuleza kunye nezicelo eziphindaphindayo, ukugcinwa kuguqulwa kwi-teknoloji ye-niche ukuya kwiziseko ezingundoqo.
Imathematika iqhuba kakuhle kakhulu. Inkqubo yebhetri ye-$ 500,000 yorhwebo ehambisa i-$ 75,000 kwintlawulo yentlawulo yemfuno yonyaka ngelixa ibamba i-$ 25,000 kumathuba e-arbitrage ihlawula emva kweminyaka emihlanu. Bandakanya iintlawulo zamandla, iikhredithi zamandla avuselelekayo, okanye ezinye iindlela zengeniso, kunye nembuyekezo ikhawuleza ngakumbi.
Ishumi leminyaka elizayo liza kubona iindleko zokugcina ziqhubeka ziwela ukuya kwi-$100/kWh okanye ngaphantsi kweenkqubo eziluncedo ngelixa ufakelo lwendawo yokuhlala lusondela kwi-$200{2}}300/kWh yonke-ngaphakathi. Kula manqaku amaxabiso, ukugcinwa kwenza ingqiqo yezoqoqosho kwizicelo eziqhubekayo ezibanzi ngaphandle kwenkxaso-mali okanye iimeko zeemarike ezizodwa.
Kwimibutho evavanya utyalo-mali logcino, umbuzo asikokuba iteknoloji inciphisa iindleko-ubungqina obuninzi buyaqinisekisa ukuba iyazenza. Imibuzo yokwenyani ibandakanya ubungakanani benkqubo, ukhetho lwesicelo, kunye nexesha. Ngokuphucula uqoqosho kunye nokwandisa izibonelelo zegridi, imeko yokugcina amandla amileyo yomelela ngenyanga.