Umkhondo weinkqubo yokugcina amandla ebhetri(BESS) amaxabiso achase phantse lonke uqikelelo olwenziwe kwiminyaka elishumi eyadlulayo. Uncedo{1}}isikali sofakelo lwe-lithium{2}}oluthe lwayalela i-$1,400 ngekilowatt-ngeyure nganye ngo-2010 ngoku intengiselwano engaphantsi kwe-$125/kWh kwiimarike ezininzi zehlabathi{8}}ukuwohloka okungama-91% okuqhubeka nokukhawuleza. Ixabiso elilinganayo lokugcina (i-LCOS), i-metric eyona nto ibalulekileyo kuqoqosho lwegridi, yehle yaya kutsho malunga ne-$65/MWh ngasekupheleni kuka-2025 kwiimarike ezingaphandle kweTshayina ne-United States. Le ayiseyiyo intelekelelo yethiyori. Iyenzeka eSaudi Arabia, eItali, eIndiya{15}}kwiindawo ezineefandesi ezisanda kuvalwa kunye neenombolo zekontraki enzima.
Ngaba iindleko zinokuhla ngakumbi? Phantse ngokuqinisekileyo. Owona mbuzo ukhawuleza kangakanani, kwaye yintoni eseleyo ukucudisa.
Unyaka wama-40%.
U-2024 wawukhohlakele kubenzi beebhetri{1}}kwaye ulungile kubathengi.
Uphando lweendleko zonyaka lwe-BloombergNEF lubhale into engazange ibonwe ngaphambili: unyaka wama-40%{1}}ngonyaka{2}}wokuntlitheka kwamaxabiso enkqubo yokugcina amandla. Leyo yeyona nto iphezulu yokuhla ngonyaka omnye - ukusukela oko i-BNEF yaqala ukulandelelwa ngo-2017. Ibhentshi yelizwe jikelele ifike kwi- $165/kWh yenkqubo epheleleyo ye-turnkey, kwaye ezinye iziphumo zefandesi zibonisa ukuba abaphuhlisi ngoku babhankisha kwi-sub{7}}$100/kWh iindleko zezixhobo ezifikayo kwiminyaka emibini ezayo.
Iqhutywe yintoni? Imikhosi eliqela yadibana ngaxeshanye. Amaxabiso eLithium carbonate ehle{1}ehle nge83% ukusuka kwincopho yawo ka-2022 eTshayina. Ukugqithiswa kwemveliso kufikelele kumanqanaba angenangqondo, kunye nomthamo wemveliso waseTshayina ubetha i-2 TWh ngokuchasene ne-1.2 TWh yemfuno yokwenene. Abenzi beeseli bazibandakanya kwinto abantu bangaphakathi kwishishini abayibiza ngokuba yi-"involution"{8}}intetho ethethwayo kwiimfazwe zamaxabiso ezitshabalalisayo. Ukutshintshela kwiiseli zefomati enkulu (i-300Ah nangaphezulu) kwazisa impumelelo edibanisa yonke enye into.
Ibali lepakethi yexabiso liyamangalisa ngokulinganayo. Uphando lwe-BNEF luka-2025 lufumene iipakethe ze-lithium - ezikwi-avareji yeedola ezili-108/kWh kwihlabathi jikelele, ngogcino olumileyo lubetha i-$70/kWh-45% ngezantsi kuka-2024. Ixesha lokuqala lokumisa libe lolona didi luphantsi.
I-Chemistry ibaluleke kakhulu kunokuba unokucinga
I-LFP iphumelele.
Iibhetri zeLithium iron phosphate ngoku zilawula ugcino olumileyo, kwaye ukunyuka kwazo kuchaza ukuhla kweendleko ezininzi. Kutshiphu ukuvelisa, kukhuselekile ekusebenzeni, kwaye ayifuni i-cobalt okanye i-nickel{1}}intsimbi ezimbini ezinamaxabiso aguquguqukayo kunye nekhonkco lonikezelo lwekhonkco. I-China ilawula ngaphezulu kwe-98% yomthamo wemveliso ye-LFP yehlabathi. Asiyo typo leyo.
Iibhetri ze-NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) zisafumana usetyenziso apho uxinano lwamandla lubaluleke ngaphezu kweendleko zangaphambili, kodwa izibalo zithandela i-LFP kwigridi{0}}iiprojekthi zesikali. I-avareji yamaxabiso epakethi ye-LFP ingene kwi-$81/kWh ngo-2025 xa ithelekiswa ne-$128/kWh ye-NMC. I-58% yepremiyamu kunzima ukuyithethelela xa ugcwalisa indawo ngezikhongozeli.
Imarike yezinto ze-cathode e-China ibalisa ibali elimnyama, nangona kunjalo. Umthamo omandla kakhulu-4.7 wezigidi zeetoni zomthamo wonyaka ngokuchasene ne-2.3 yezigidi zeetoni zemveliso eyiyo{4}}utyhale abavelisi kwilahleko{6}}kukwenza izikhundla iminyaka emithathu ilandelelana. Ishishini elingavelisi ngeniso alikwazi ukutyala imali kubuchwepheshe besizukulwana esilandelayo. UBeijing uye waqaphela. Izithintelo zokuthumela ngaphandle kubuchwephesha be-LFP obuphambili obukhatywe kulo nyaka, kwaye urhulumente wabiza iintlanganiso ezingxamisekileyo kunye nabavelisi abaphezulu bezama ukumisa ugqatso ukuya ezantsi.
Izikhewu zeNgingqi eziNgavalwa kungekudala
Umahluko weendleko phakathi kweTshayina nakuyo yonke enye indawo uhlala umangalisa.
Iinkqubo zesitshixo zamaTshayina zenza i-avareji ye-$101/kWh kuphando lwe-BNEF luka-2024. I-US yangena kwi-$ 236 / kWh. EYurophu? $275/kWh. Ayingomahluko umncinci lo. Bamele iinyani ezahlukeneyo zoqoqosho kubaphuhlisi beprojekthi.
Kutheni kukho umsantsa?
I-China ixhamla kumakhonkco obonelelo adityanisiweyo ngokuthe nkqo, iindleko eziphantsi zabasebenzi, umbane ophantsi, amashumi eminyaka okwenziwa kwemveliso, kunye nesikali semveliso ekungekho mntu unokusithelekisa. Abavelisi beCandelo loku-1 laseTshayina banelahleko yesivuno esisezantsi kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kwefektri kunabakhuphisana naphi na. Yongeza izibonelelo zikarhulumente ezixhasa ukwakhiwa kweshishini iminyaka, kwaye ufumana iindleko abavelisi baseNtshona abasokola ukuzifikelela.
Umthetho wokuNcitshiswa kwexabiso lentengo awukawuvali umsantsa. Iiprojekthi zebhetri zase-US zisaxhomekeke phantse ngokupheleleyo ekuthengweni kweseli yaseTshayina{1}}Uvavanyo lwe-BNEF lufumene iiseli eziphuma ekhaya ziro kwiseti yazo yaseMelika. Nokuba iikhredithi zerhafu zikhutshiwe ekubalweni kweendleko, iibhetri{3}}zenziwe zaseMelika zihlala "kuluhlu lwamaxabiso aduru kakhulu," njengoko omnye umhlalutyi ngokwezozakuzo esitsho.
IYurophu ijongene nemingeni efanayo. Iinkampani zaseTshayina, ezixinzelelwe ekhaya kwaye zavalwa kwiimarike zase-US ngamaxabiso, ziye zahlasela ngamandla ukuthunyelwa kumazwe angaphandle kweYurophu ngezicwangciso eziliqili zamaxabiso okugcina amanani entengiso. Ukhuphiswano luye lwaqina, kodwa abavelisi baseYurophu abanako ukuhambelana neendleko zaseTshayina.
Apho Imali Iya khona ngokwenene
Ukophula amaxabiso enkqubo yebhetri kubonisa ukuba unciphiso olungakumbi lunokuvela phi.
Usetyenziso olupheleleyo{0}}isikali BESS sahlulahlulwe ngokurhabaxa:
Iindleko zokupakisha iiseli (ziyehla ngokukhawuleza)
Inkqubo yokuguqula amandla (PCS)
Inkqubo yolawulo lwamandla (EMS)
Ibhalansi yenkqubo (BOS)
Ukufakela kunye noqhagamshelwano lwegridi
Ipakethe yeeseli ngokwayo ibone ukucinezelwa kweendleko. Yintoni eseleyo? I-BOS, ufakelo, kunye neendleko ezithambileyo ngoku ziquka isabelo esikhulu senkcitho yeprojekthi iyonke. Le mimandla ijongene namandla awohlukeneyo kunoqoqosho lwemveliso. Iindleko zabasebenzi. Ukuvumela amaxesha. Imigca yoqhagamshelo.
I-NREL's Storage Futures Study yachaza kwiminyaka eyadlulayo ukuba ukucutha iindleko zepakethi kuya kudlula amanye amacandelo. Olo qikelelo ludlale kakhulu. Ukwehla kweendleko ngokubanzi kuya kufuna ukungasebenzi kakuhle kofakelo, iinkqubo zolawulo, kunye neenkqubo zoqhagamshelo lwegridi{2}}imimandla apho inkqubela ithande ukucotha kwaye isanda kakhulu.
Inguquko yeSize yeSeli
Umqhubi omnye weendleko ufumana ingqalelo enganelanga: imilinganiselo yeeseli zomzimba.
Abavelisi bebhetri bayabaleka ukuvelisa iiseli zefomati ezinkulu-314Ah, 560Ah, ezinye ezinkulu ngakumbi. Isisombululo se-CATL sikaTener sicudisa i-6.25MWh kwisikhongozeli esizinyawo ezingama-20. Kwiminyaka nje emibini edlulileyo, i-5MWh yayijongwa njengendlongondlongo.
Kutheni le nto ibalulekile?
Iiseli ezinkulu zithetha iiseli ezimbalwa kwisixokelelwano ngasinye. Iiseli ezimbalwa zithetha ukuqhagamshelwa okumbalwa, ukusebenza kwendibano encinci, ukunciphisa ubunzima bokulawulwa kwe-thermal, kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kwe-volumetric. Iinkqubo ezisebenzisa iiseli ezingama-300Ah+ zibaleke malunga ne-5% ngexabiso eliphantsi kunezo zineeseli ezincinci kuhlalutyo lwe-BNEF. Njengoko ezi fomati zihamba ukusuka kwisibhengezo ukuya kwimveliso yobuninzi, inzuzo yazo yeendleko iya kubanda.
Isingxobo se-5MWh 20-foot siye salulungelelwaniso olusemgangathweni phakathi kwabadibanisi abanzulu. Abadlali baseNtshona abanjengoFluence, uPowin, kunye neWärtsilä bonke baye badibana kwiinkcukacha ezifanayo emva kokuba abavelisi baseTshayina bewubonakalisile lo mbono. Abaphuhlisi kunye nabaqhubi be-asethi baqinisekisile kwi-ESN Premium ukuba iinkqubo eziphezulu zokuxinana ngoku kuphela kwemveliso esebenzayo kwiiprojekthi ezikhuphisanayo.
Kuthekani Ngeendlela ezizezinye?
Isodium-iyoni ifumene i-buzz. Ufanele abanye.
Iiprojekthi ze-IRENA zesodium-iiseli zebhetri yeion zinokufikelela kwi-$40/kWh{2}}amaxabiso anomtsalane ukuba izikali zokwenza. Umthamo wangoku wemveliso uhlala malunga nama-70 GWh (ugxile e-China, ngokwendalo), kunye noqikelelo olusuka kwi-50 GWh ukuya kuma-600 GWh lonyaka wemfuno ngo-2030 kuxhomekeke ekubeni ubuza bani. Uluhlu olubanzi lubonisa ukungaqiniseki okwenyani.
Itekhnoloji ibonelela ngeenzuzo ekugqithiseni kweqondo lokushisa kwaye igwema ubuthathaka bekhonkco lokubonelela nge-lithium. Kodwa i-LFP iyaqhubeka nokuphucula. Ithagethi ihlala ihamba. Iinkampani eziphuhlisa ezinye iindlela zesodium{3}}zijongana nomntu okhuphisana naye ongahlali phantsi.
Iibhetri eziqukuqelayo, i-hydro emponthiweyo, umoya ocinezelweyo, ugcino lobushushu{0}}ubude obahlukeneyo{1}}iitekhnoloji zexesha elide zithembisa iprofayile zeendleko ezahlukeneyo kwi- 8+ usetyenziso lweyure. Akukho nanye ephumelele isikali sokubeka i-lithium-iion. Ukwenziwa kwee-curves zokufunda kufuna ukusasazwa. Ukusasazwa kufuna iindleko ezikhuphisanayo. Ingxaki yenkukhu{8}}yeqanda yinyani.
Ukujonga phambili (Ngokuqaphela)
Uqikelelo lweendleko ze-NREL luka-2024 lucebisa i-4 -iyure ye-lithium{5}} iindleko zenkqubo ye-ion zinokuhla enye i-22-47% ngo-2030 phantsi kweengqikelelo eziphakathi. Imeko yabo "ephambili" ityhalela kunciphiso lwe-31% nasemva koko ukuya kuthi ga ngo-2050.
Olu qikelelo luvele phambi kontlitheko luka-2024 lwama-40%. Amaxabiso okwenene sele ehle ngaphantsi koqikelelo "olunethemba" kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo. Ukuqikelela iindleko zebhetri kuye kwathobisa ababikezeli ngokuphindaphindiweyo.
Sekunjalo. Ezona zinto ziqhuba ucutho lweendleko{1}}isikali sokwenziwa, ukhuphiswano, uphuculo lwekhemistri, ukwenziwa ngcono kwefomathi yeseli{2}}zihlale zikhona. Ukugqithiswa kwamandla eTshayina akubonakalisi sisombululo. Uxinzelelo lwexabiso luyaqhubeka.
Yintoni enokucothisa izinto? Ukuphazamiseka kwekhonkco lonikezelo. Uxinzelelo lwezelizwe nopolitiko luthintela ukugqithiselwa kobuchwephesha. Izithintelo zokubonelela ngezimbiwa (nangona uloyiko lokunqongophala kwe-lithium luye lwaphela kutshanje). Imigangatho yokusingqongileyo okanye yabasebenzi inyusa iindleko zemveliso. Ukuqinisa ukunciphisa uxinzelelo lokhuphiswano.
I-IEA iprojekthi yokunciphisa i-40% kwi-avareji ye-lithium ye-lithium - yeendleko ze-ion ukusuka ku-2023 ukuya ku-2030. Emva kokubukela i-shishini ligqithise okulindelekileyo kwiminyaka elishumi elinesihlanu ilandelelana, ukubheja ngokuchasene nokuhla okuqhubekayo kubonakala kungebobulumko.
Ngoko, Ewe
Impendulo emfutshane malunga nokuba iindleko zebhetri zokugcina amandla zingancitshiswa phantse zilula ngokuhlazisayo: sele zincitshiswa, ngokumangalisayo, ngokuqhubekayo, kuzo zonke iimarike ezinkulu. Imibuzo enika umdla ilele kwenye indawo.
Ixabiso eliphantsi kangakanani ukuhlengahlengisa uqoqosho lwegridi? Mhlawumbi sikufutshane. Kwi-65 yeedola / MWh LCOS, ukudibanisa isizukulwana selanga kunye nokugcinwa kwebhetri kuvelisa ukhuphiswano lombane oluthunyelwayo kunye neendlela ezininzi zefosili. Uhlalutyo luka-Ember lucebisa ukuba ukongeza ugcino kwilanga linyusa zonke-kwiindleko ukuya malunga ne-$76/MWh{5}}engatshiphuki ngokwemigangatho yembali, kodwa inguquko xa kuthelekiswa nobekulindelekile kwiminyaka elishumi eyadlulayo.
Abavelisi baseNtshona baya kukhuphisana njani neendleko zeendleko zaseTshayina? Ayicacanga. Uluhlu lweerhafu kunye neemfuno zomxholo wasekhaya zenza imigangatho yamaxabiso enziweyo, kodwa azenzi amandla okuvelisa okhuphisanayo. Amashishini adityanisiweyo kunye namaqabane aseTshayina anokuba yindlela esebenzayo kwiinkampani ezingafuni ukwamkela ukungalungi kweendleko ezisisigxina.
Kude kube nini phambi kokuba enye into iphazamise ukongamela kwe-lithium -? Mhlawumbi ungaze ugcinwe kwigridi. Mhlawumbi ishumi leminyaka elizayo. Ibhetri yelizwe -eqinile ihlala ithembisa impumelelo ehlala ingafiki. Isodium-iyoni inokuzoba i-niche. Kodwa i-LFP i-lithium-i-ion inomfutho, iziseko zophuhliso, kunye ne-curve yophuculo lweendleko ezingayekeleliyo ekufuneka ezinye ngandlela ithile zibethwe ngelixa iqhubeka isiya ezantsi.
Ibali lokunciphisa ixabiso lebhetri alikho malunga nokuba iindleko zinokuwa. Igqityiwe. Imalunga nendlela iziphumo ezikhula ngayo kwiimarike zamandla, ikhonkco lonikezelo lwemveliso, ubudlelwane bezopolitiko, kunye noqoqosho olusisiseko lokuveliswa kombane kwihlabathi liphela.
Ezo ripples ziyaqala nje.